Jobs Report

Federal Reser

2026-08-31 12:47:11

BofA Securities says August data may reshape the Fed’s September rate outlook

BofA Securities said in a report dated Aug. 31 that market pricing for a September rate hike climbed to nearly 60% after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday. Even so, the firm said the path for further tightening is still not settled and may hinge on incoming U.S. economic data for August. According to the report, analysts do not see a September move as guaranteed. They said a very weak August data set could still change the picture, while the absence of a major downside surprise would leave Warsh carrying the burden of a September hike. The August employment report is due this Friday and is likely to be a key input for that assessment. BofA also pointed to the July jobs report, which came in noticeably weaker than analysts had expected. That result has led some economists to question the underlying growth momentum of the U.S. economy. The note frames the coming August releases as a near-term test for whether the Fed proceeds with another increase in September.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-31 11:03:41

Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks lift September hike bets, but bond investors still doubt the Fed will follow through

Kevin Warsh’s latest remarks at Jackson Hole pushed market pricing toward a possible September rate increase, with swap traders putting the odds of a mid-September hike at about 60%. The move rippled through the Treasury market, where the policy-sensitive 2-year yield posted its biggest jump in more than two months before slipping 2 basis points to 4.32% in Asian trading. Even so, several large fixed-income investors are not changing their positioning. ABN AMRO, Brandywine, and DWS all remain underweight long-dated U.S. Treasurys, arguing that rhetoric still needs to be matched by policy action. Their skepticism reflects Warsh’s recent record: despite repeated inflation-focused messaging, the Fed held rates unchanged in both June and July. Investors are now focused on whether incoming data will force a clearer decision. This week’s monthly U.S. jobs report, followed by inflation data, is seen as central to the Fed’s September meeting. Some managers warn that markets may be “doing the Fed’s job” by pricing in tightening too aggressively if the data fail to reaccelerate. Others say a lack of follow-through could revive concerns about Fed credibility and trigger a replay of July’s sharp curve steepening.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-31 06:33:35

Nomura says Warsh struck a hawkish tone, but September Fed hold remains the base case

Nomura said in its Aug. 28 U.S. economic weekly that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish debut at Jackson Hole, putting the inflation target back at the center of the policy discussion while stopping short of signaling an imminent rate hike. The firm expects core PCE to rise about 0.2% month over month in August, a pace it believes is still consistent with the Federal Reserve staying on hold for now. Nomura also expects the August jobs report to show resilience, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 60,000, private payrolls up 45,000, the unemployment rate falling to 4.0%, and average hourly earnings increasing 0.4% from the prior month. At the same time, it raised its third-quarter GDP tracking estimate to 3.6% from 2.7% on stronger-than-expected consumer spending and business investment. Even so, the report says uncertainty around the policy path has increased. Nomura expects the Fed to remain on hold indefinitely, with risks tilted toward tighter policy. August employment and inflation data are now seen as the key inputs for the September FOMC meeting.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-30 04:03:58

Fed expectations drive dollar higher as gold and silver come under pressure

According to Jin10, this week’s market tone was driven by shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. After Fed Chair Warsh spoke on Friday, the dollar jumped intraday and finished at 99.69, up 0.85% for the week. Treasury yields and the stronger dollar weighed on precious metals, with gold down 3.24% on the week and spot silver falling 3.82%. Markets will then turn to a packed calendar in the new week, including the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, eurozone CPI and unemployment data, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings, construction spending, ADP employment, factory orders, the Fed’s Beige Book, weekly jobless claims, and Friday’s U.S. August jobs report. That payrolls release is the last employment data before the Sept. 16 policy meeting and will be watched closely after Warsh’s hawkish comments. The calendar also includes Nvidia’s strong results and roughly 70% next fiscal-year revenue growth outlook, which helped revive AI trading interest, plus post-close earnings from Dell on Sept. 1 and Broadcom on Sept. 2.

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Nonfarm Payro

2026-08-30 02:54:12

Economists Expect 55,000 August Jobs Gain, Jobless Rate at 4.1%

According to a ChainCatcher report, economists expect the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report, due Friday, to show August nonfarm payrolls increased by 55,000. That would follow an unexpected decline in July. If the forecast holds, the gain would be roughly in line with the average monthly increase seen this year. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.1%. Analyst Anna Wong commented that Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole raised the probability of a September rate hike and altered market expectations for how next week's data should be read. She noted that while the August employment report remains the headline release, the anticipated weak outcome may not be as decisive as usual. Warsh, for his part, described the labor market as fundamentally healthy and suggested that slower job growth typically stems from demographics rather than an economic downturn. The August payroll report remains the top data point, though its expected softness could carry less weight than in prior months, according to Wong. Warsh characterized labor market conditions as good, pointing to demographic factors as a common explanation for decelerating job gains instead of recession signals.

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Morgan Stanle

2026-08-11 11:00:43

Morgan Stanley: Weak Inflation Cooling Could Rekindle Rate-Hike Concerns

Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at Morgan Stanley E*TRADE, said the S&P 500's breakout from a nearly two-month trading range leaves it facing inflation and geopolitical tests this week. The employment report may have eased worries about a Federal Reserve rate hike next month, but if cooling in this week's inflation data falls short, those worries could build again.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-11 05:57:42

Mixed July Jobs Report Raises Stakes for Inflation Data, Economists Say

After last week's mixed July jobs report, economists say inflation data will carry more weight. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, noted that the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path depends on how long elevated inflation persists. At Vanguard, analyst Xikelin argued that the July jobs report, along with an anticipated improvement in inflation, would boost the Fed's rationale for staying on hold until year-end. A run of recent data has also strengthened market expectations that the central bank will keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

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US economy

2026-08-08 00:39:46

Treasury Secretary Bessent says U.S. jobs report understates the economy’s underlying strength

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Aug. 8 that the latest employment report understated the underlying strength of the real economy in the United States. In a social media post cited by BlockBeats, Bessent said domestic businesses are building, factories are producing, and worker productivity is rising. He said employment in goods-producing industries increased for a fifth straight month in July. According to his statement, the sector has added 105,000 jobs so far this year, marking the strongest seven-month start since 2023. Bessent also said second-quarter productivity growth came in at more than twice the expected pace. He argued that this created favorable conditions for sustained U.S. economic growth and real wage gains for American workers. He added that strong expectations for third-quarter growth pointed to a possible acceleration in the broader economy. In the same post, Bessent said an economy built on stronger supply-side capacity, rather than short-term stimulus, would support higher wages, stronger businesses, more consumer choice, and lower inflation.

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