According to the PPP prediction market monitoring tool, Polymarket's market for ETH dropping to $2,400 in the remaining days of August now shows a 30% probability, down 31% in the past 24 hours. The odds of falling to $2,300 are just 4%, down 4% in the same period. The market settles based on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-minute candlestick high price. Within the specified window — from 00:00 ET on August 1 to 23:59 ET on August 31 — if any 1-minute high reaches the target price, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, No. Other exchanges and pairs are ignored. A 30% yes-probability implies a 70% chance of ETH holding above $2,400 for the rest of the month. The sharp reduction in the odds over a single day is a key takeaway from the data. The market's binary structure means only two outcomes are possible, and the current pricing is derived directly from the latest updates to the underlying Binance price feed. The figures come from the PPP tool and were distributed via an Odaily newsflash.

CME FedWatch data on Aug 30 showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September at 57%, with odds of holding rates steady at 43%. The shift follows a more hawkish-than-expected speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole on Friday evening. Warsh signaled the Fed could raise rates again if inflation does not return to 2% at a clear and sufficiently fast pace. Before the September FOMC meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI inflation report are still due, along with some secondary data releases. With recent U.S. jobs reports missing expectations by wide margins, any further weakening signal could significantly undermine market expectations for a September hike.

Anna Wong, chief economist at Bloomberg, wrote on August 29 that next week's nonfarm payrolls report could be weak, with even a chance of negative growth. She said that would have a critical impact on the Federal Reserve's policy path. If two consecutive negative readings appear, she noted, there is no precedent in the modern Fed's history for raising rates under such circumstances. As a result, the probability of a Fed rate hike may decline.

According to BlockBeats, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said on August 29 that Fed Chair Warsh's Friday evening Jackson Hole speech was viewed as quite hawkish. Warsh, when it came to forward guidance, said what the market expected: he does not believe in forward guidance, and therefore declined to pre-commit to a September rate hike. Yet that did not stop market participants from speculating that a rate increase could genuinely return to the table. On inflation, Warsh said reining in price pressures remains a clear priority and elaborated on the point at length, while adding that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his remarks came across as more hawkish than the market had priced in. During the speech, September Fed pricing was significantly repriced, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike jumping from 30% to around 50%. Before the September FOMC meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI report are still due, along with some secondary data. Under the new chair, Razaqzada noted, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent U.S. employment reports have missed expectations by sizable margins, any further softness could severely undermine confidence in a September hike.

In a note published on Aug. 29, CICC offered its take on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, calling the tone hawkish. Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, said interest rates are still the primary policy tool, and pledged to act "as circumstances warrant." He pointed to economic resilience, stable employment, and easing financial conditions as evidence that policy risks now tilt to the inflation side. He also placed responsibility for the 65-month inflation overshoot on the central bank itself and walked back his July suggestion of letting the market do the Fed's rate-hiking work. CICC believes the speech will help rebuild the Fed's credibility, and markets have already started to price a marginal recovery in policy trust. Over the longer run, Warsh continues to argue that AI could reshape the economy and the policy framework, while pushing for fewer forward-guidance commitments and other reforms. For markets, the hawkish signal raises the odds of a rate hike this year, but CICC cautions that this is not necessarily pure bad news. Liquidity is not the issue today; what markets need is policy discipline and predictability. If inflation is subdued in time, the medium-term outcome could actually be favorable, the brokerage said.

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said Wosh's speech on Friday evening was viewed as fairly hawkish. In remarks on forward guidance, Wosh said what markets expected him to say — he does not believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. That did not stop speculation that a hike could return to the table. On inflation, Wosh said fighting it remains a clear priority, a point he elaborated at length, while adding that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than markets expected. During Wosh's Jackson Hole remarks, the market substantially repriced expectations for the Fed's September decision, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI inflation report are still due, along with some secondary data releases. Under the new chair, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have missed expectations by wide margins, any further weakening signal could seriously undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.

Federal Reserve Chair Christopher Waller’s first appearance at the Jackson Hole symposium was widely read on Wall Street as a hawkish reset of the Fed’s July messaging. Waller reiterated that the 2% inflation target is non-negotiable, said overall financial conditions are hard to describe as restrictive, and argued that better-than-expected summer PCE and CPI readings do not yet prove a meaningful improvement in the underlying inflation trend. He added that the Fed still has work to do if it cannot be confident inflation is falling at a clear and sufficiently fast pace. The speech quickly shifted market focus back toward the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Priya Misra called it a hawkish speech and a clean-up act for what she saw as poor communication after the July press conference. Aberdeen’s Matthew Amis warned that if the Fed does not raise rates in September, its credibility could take another hit. CME data showed the implied probability of a September hike rose from about 35% before the speech to roughly 50% afterward, with some market gauges briefly pointing closer to 60%. Barclays and Societe Generale both revised their forecasts and now expect 25 basis-point hikes in September and December. SocGen also sees another move in March, while noting that call carries significant uncertainty. Other investors said Waller left enough room for near-term tightening, but still stopped short of giving markets a clear policy path.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said Friday that summer inflation data, while better than expected, has not shown a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend. He stressed controlling inflation remains the top priority and said the U.S. economy appears to be strengthening. Treasury yields rose and gold fell after his remarks. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike jumped to 45.7%, up sharply from the previous day.