Serenity2026-08-29 13:15:23Serenity: Sivers Photonics' Sweden Focus Risks Trapping Its ValuationSerenity, the investor known as the 'White-Hair Stock God,' has publicly questioned Sivers Photonics' (SIVE) current strategy, arguing that the company remains overly focused on the Swedish market while US investors are more likely to reward its future growth potential and the real economic value of its order book. According to Serenity, American analysts would be more interested in what Sivers' two recent wafer fab capacity allocations actually mean—and, with supply bottlenecks and rising average selling prices (ASP), how much revenue and operating leverage those volumes could translate into. Serenity also said topics like NPO/CPO, pluggable optical modules, the 2028 volume ramp of CPO makers such as Ayar, the ELS product collaboration with O-Net, and the scale and potential total addressable market (TAM) of six newly added pluggable customers deserve deeper discussion. By contrast, local market participants keep pressing management on 'how to stop the bleeding,' why private customers cannot be disclosed, why the company is focused on transceivers, and what the 'business opportunity pipeline' actually means—forcing management to spend considerable time defending itself instead of talking about future growth. Serenity believes the more time Sivers spends on the Swedish market, the more its valuation becomes constrained by Swedish market investment logic, and it should therefore present its growth opportunities and their economic value more aggressively to US investors.1050
Indium Phosph2026-08-19 23:03:10China’s grip on indium phosphide is tightening pressure on the CPO supply chainIndium phosphide has moved to the center of the optical supply chain as AI data center buildouts drive demand for high-speed optical modules and co-packaged optics, or CPO. The article argues that China now holds critical leverage across all three major steps of the indium phosphide chain: primary indium smelting, indium refining, and wafer manufacturing. That position has become more consequential after Beijing expanded export controls from indium phosphide products to upstream indium itself. The report details how pressure is building across the industry. Lumentum’s CEO said earlier this month that the shortage in indium phosphide is even more severe than in memory, while Nokia has moved to secure production by acquiring facilities tied to indium phosphide manufacturing. Coherent, a major supplier of indium phosphide laser products used in Nvidia’s CPO systems, is also highlighted as scrambling to secure supply as customers push for more capacity. At the same time, Chinese companies including Yunnan Germanium and Zhuzhou Keneng are seeing stronger orders and making progress on larger wafers and higher-purity indium products. Still, the article says two constraints remain unresolved: customer qualification cycles and capacity expansion. Even with Chinese suppliers gaining ground, the gap between projected global demand and effective supply remains large heading into 2026.1860
US Stocks2026-08-13 23:33:08US Stocks Rise, S&P 500 Hits Record; SanDisk Surges 13.6% on CFO OutlookUS equities closed higher on Aug. 14, with the S&P 500 finishing at a fresh record, according to BIT (Bit.com) market data cited by BlockBeats. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.13% to 53,839.99. The S&P 500 advanced 0.65% to 7,798.99, another record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.81% to 26,803.03. Crypto-related stocks were broadly firmer. Bullish jumped 11.57%, Circle gained 5.75%, Coinbase added 3.26%, Strategy rose 2.39%, BMNR advanced 2.24%, and GEMI increased 3.12%. Optical module names diverged: Coherent fell 7.99%, Lumentum dropped 5.58%, and Applied Optoelectronics lost 5.79%. Storage stocks extended their rebound. SanDisk surged 13.67% after its CFO said the company expects $93.9 billion in total contract value from eight customers, sees non-GAAP gross margin of about 80% between fiscal 2028 and fiscal 2030, and plans to return all excess cash to shareholders. Western Digital rose 7.31%, Seagate added 4.91%, and Micron gained 4.23%.1310
Nvidia2026-08-12 03:40:09Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink respond to Nvidia investment rumorMarket chatter has circulated around a possible Nvidia investment in two Chinese optical module companies, but both firms stopped short of confirming anything. The rumor said Nvidia planned to spend $2 billion on a strategic stake in Zhongji Innolight, with the money earmarked for next-generation optical module research, global capacity expansion, and construction of a new factory in Thailand. The same market talk also claimed Nvidia wanted to act as a cornerstone investor in Eoptolink’s Hong Kong IPO. On Aug. 12, a representative from Zhongji Innolight said the company was not aware of the rumor and that investors should refer to official company announcements. Eoptolink gave a similarly cautious response, saying it was not in a position to comment on the rumor and that any matters related to its H-share plans should be based on formal disclosures.3690
Policy and Re2026-08-11 06:54:08Citi says proposed U.S. curbs on Chinese optical modules have not advanced beyond the idea stageCiti said in an Aug. 9 research note that the reported U.S. move to block Chinese optical modules from the American market has not yet become an effective ban under existing Federal Communications Commission rules. Reviewing FCC Order 26-50, the bank said optical modules do not appear on any active restricted list. They are mentioned only once in an example tied to hardware and software bill-of-materials disclosure, not in the ban section. The bank outlined three possible regulatory routes: restrictions tied to specific manufacturers, restrictions based on all foreign production locations, and a narrower origin-based approach aimed only at products made in China. Citi judged the manufacturer-based route the least likely and said origin-based restrictions are more plausible, though near-term enforcement remains unlikely. Its main argument is supply. Citi estimated Chinese suppliers account for 60% to 70% of high-speed optical modules used by U.S. hyperscalers. Non-Chinese suppliers, in its view, cannot close that gap in the short run, while domestic U.S. production lines still need time to ramp. The report also singled out Eoptolink and DSBJ as the most exposed among the companies discussed, while Tianfu Communication was described as relatively insulated because it supplies passive components that do not fall within the current restricted-list framework.2380
US Stocks2026-08-07 16:25:02US Optical Module Stocks Extend Gains: COHR Up Over 16%, AAOI Jumps 12.12%U.S. optical module stocks extended gains on Aug. 8, with COHR up over 16%, AAOI rising 12.12%, and LITE adding 6.47%, per BIT (bit.com) data. Roundhill's optical module ETF (LYTE) gained 4.66%.1990
Optical Modul2026-08-07 07:33:57JPMorgan sees 28% CAGR in optical modules market, with NPO and CPO taking over after 2028JPMorgan said in an Aug. 6 research note that the data communications market is set to grow at a 28% compound annual rate over the next five years, topping $70 billion by 2030. It said 1.6T products will be the biggest growth driver, while pluggable optics will lead through 2028 before NPO and CPO take over the incremental growth afterward. The report also pointed to Google and Meta as key buyers, and said Nvidia may regain share in the near term even as its long-term market share declines.2390
US FCC2026-08-05 18:26:07US FCC Moves to Ban Chinese Optical Modules, Raising AI Buildout ConcernsThe U.S. Federal Communications Commission is drafting a rule that would block Chinese optical modules from entering American data centers, according to Techub News. Optical modules are critical components for data transmission inside data centers. Chinese manufacturer Zhongji Innolight currently holds roughly 27% of the global market for these devices. In a report cited by Techub News, Counterpoint Research says Western suppliers cannot quickly fill a supply gap, and it would take approximately 12 to 24 months to increase production capacity. As a result, hyperscale cloud operators including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google could face serious effects on the progress and cost of building out AI infrastructure. The potential restrictions could hit both the speed and the budget of cloud expansion for the largest U.S. technology companies. The Techub News brief credits CryptoBriefing as the source. The draft rule is still in preparation, and no final details have been provided in the report.2090
