The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in March, with Powell warning that a 50% oil price spike could push core inflation higher. Fitch sees a 6-month cut still possible if the oil shock proves temporary.
Wintermute said long-term investors are quietly accumulating Bitcoin through OTC desks while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw about $2 billion in combined outflows between May 20 and May 29.
Bitfinex report: Bitcoin posted first monthly gain since September 2025 in March, with spot prices near $68,300. ETF inflows resumed but BlackRock's IBIT saw minimal flow. Derivatives funding rates stayed negative, indicating weak conviction amid crowded shorts.
U.S. December PCE data is set to test crypto market sentiment. With Bitcoin trading near $67,852 and core PCE seen rising to 3.0% year over year, traders are watching whether inflation strengthens higher-rate expectations or revives hopes for rate cuts.
MSX Research Institute said market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were scaled back after new Fed Chair Warsh appeared before Congress for a second straight day and maintained a hawkish stance, even as June CPI came in cooler than expected. According to the note, headline CPI slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% and core CPI stood at 2.6%, both below expectations but still above the Fed’s 2% target. MSX said Warsh signaled “zero tolerance” on inflation, downplayed a single month of data, and did not offer forward guidance. With oil back above $80, the market moved quickly to reprice policy expectations. The report said traders are betting the Federal Open Market Committee will stay on hold at its July 28-29 meeting, while attention on a possible hike has shifted to September with roughly 60% probability. It also put the implied probability of no rate cuts in 2026 at about 80%. In MSX’s view, the near-term divide for U.S. equities now lies with July 30 core PCE data and the next round of major earnings reports.
The CME Group's FedWatch tool estimates a 23.2% chance of a rate cut at the July FOMC meeting, indicating markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady. The article analyzes implications for inflation, employment, and crypto markets.
US June core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, below 2.7% forecast, signaling contained inflation and keeping the Fed’s policy options open. Market expects higher chance of rate cuts, benefiting Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Crypto markets turned bearish on Aug 29, with Bitcoin dropping below $110K to $109,436 and major altcoins losing 2-8%. The US July core PCE data showed a slight rise but stayed within expectations, keeping rate cut hopes alive.
