QCP Capital said Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gain since March 2024 last week, rising more than 20% and briefly touching about $79,500. The trading desk linked the move to a sharp turn in rates markets after the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield neared 5.3%, close to its highest level since 2007, before the Treasury said it would raise the size of long-end liquidity support buyback operations from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion starting Sept. 9. QCP said long-end yields then fell, the dollar weakened, and both Bitcoin and gold moved higher. It added that positioning changes accelerated the initial breakout, while spot demand kept building afterward. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs drew a combined roughly $2.6 billion in net inflows last week, which QCP described as the strongest weekly intake since October 2025. For this week, the firm said markets are watching three macro variables: PCE inflation data, Nvidia earnings as a signal for the AI investment cycle, and Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s first keynote at Jackson Hole as a signal for the monetary policy framework.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempt to calm the long end of the Treasury market has shifted attention to Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, whose Jackson Hole remarks are now the week’s main event. Bessent said the Treasury would at least double the size of its long-dated bond buybacks in an effort to cap rising long-term yields. The initial move worked, but only briefly. Yields soon returned to elevated levels and ended the week little changed. Markets responded in a different way. The dollar fell nearly 1% over the week, gold broke above $4,600, and bitcoin gained more than 25%. Charlie McElligott of Nomura described that mix as a “pressure release valve,” arguing that efforts to steady long-end rates did not remove market anxiety, but pushed it into other assets. Attention now turns to Warsh, who is set to speak Friday at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Traders, according to Bloomberg, want clarity on how the Fed will react while inflation remains above its 2% target and the fiscal backdrop keeps deteriorating. Analysts from TD Securities, HSBC and Bloomberg Markets Live say his wording could determine whether long-end selling cools or accelerates. At the same time, debate has revived around a possible Fed “Operation Twist,” with some strategists arguing that Treasury buybacks alone are too small to change market direction.

Goldman Sachs expects July core PCE inflation to rise 0.23% month over month, a level it says is slightly above both core CPI and market consensus, according to a BlockBeats report published on August 13. The forecast arrives as market attention pivots to the July core PCE data scheduled for release on August 26, following the latest CPI report. Within the details, Goldman attributes part of the projected increase to portfolio management fees, which it estimates will add 8 basis points, reflecting second-quarter equity market performance. The bank also cautioned that an upcoming change in methodology could introduce volatility into PCE readings and lower the annual core inflation rate. Looking further ahead, Goldman expects August core inflation to run near 0.2%. The firm believes the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at current levels through the end of the year. Taken together, the projections offer a two-month read on core inflation across July and August.

The July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report left the Federal Reserve without a clean policy signal ahead of its September meeting. Payrolls fell by 23,000, far below expectations for a gain of 50,000 to 140,000, while May and June job growth was revised down by a combined 103,000. At the same time, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.09% from 4.17%, its lowest level since June 2025, pointing to a labor market that has cooled but not clearly weakened. Nick Timiraos, the economic reporter often viewed by markets as a close reader of Fed thinking, said the report “barely clarified” the question policymakers care about most. He described the release as “messy” for the Fed: weaker payroll growth and softer wage gains undercut the case for a September rate hike, but the drop in unemployment keeps the door open for officials who still worry that labor conditions remain firm. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month and 3.2% year over year, both below expectations. Wall Street economists broadly reached the same conclusion. The labor report offered support for both doves and hawks, leaving inflation as the deciding factor. Timiraos said upcoming CPI and PCE data in the next few weeks are likely to determine whether the Fed holds rates steady again or whether support grows for another hike after three voting FOMC members dissented in favor of tightening at last week’s meeting.

U.S. stocks rallied sharply on July 31 after June PCE inflation data came in cooler and Microsoft posted its fastest cloud growth in four years. Microsoft jumped more than 15% in a single session, its biggest one-day gain since 2008, adding $450 billion in market value and setting a new record for single-day market cap growth in U.S. equities. The move spilled into semiconductor and storage names, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising more than 8% and several storage-linked stocks posting double-digit gains. At the same time, the broader macro picture remained mixed. June PCE rose 3.7% year over year, down from 4.1% in May, while core PCE increased 3.3% and matched expectations. But second-quarter real GDP grew at an annualized 1.5%, below the 2.1% consensus, and the personal saving rate fell to 2.7%, the lowest level since June 2007. After the bell, Apple and Amazon reported earnings, with Amazon raising its full-year capital spending forecast to $220 billion. Meta separately disclosed nearly $700 billion in future spending commitments tied mainly to AI data centers and cloud infrastructure.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000 and hit its lowest level in nearly 10 days before rebounding around $62,700, but it still remains under a key resistance zone ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Traders cited in the report kept a cautious view: resistance sits at $64,000 to $64,400, while liquidity is concentrated lower between $60,000 and $62,000. Analyst Killa said the structure stays range-bound and bearish unless BTC reclaims $65,700 and the weekly open, while Wulf said the real directional move may come after the Fed decision even though buyers have shown up around $62,700. The report also tied crypto price action to a broader cross-asset reset. US semiconductor and memory names stayed weak in late trading, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.49%, and selling spread through Micron, SK Hynix ADR, SanDisk, AMD and Corning. In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 5.99% after an intraday slide of more than 12%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 also declined. The piece said some global funds were rotating away from Korean semiconductor exposure and toward Hong Kong tech names and China’s domestic chip narrative, with ChangXin Memory Technology rising 12.66%. Investors are now watching the Fed decision, Chair Waller’s press conference, US GDP and core PCE data, the Bank of Japan meeting, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Coinbase and Strategy.

U.S. stocks are heading into a crowded week of catalysts, with corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy and macroeconomic data all landing within a few sessions. On Tuesday, investors are watching results from V, GEV, KO and BA. Wednesday brings the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision alongside earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM) and HOOD. Thursday adds another layer, with the initial GDP reading and June PCE data due the same day that Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Coinbase (COIN) report results. On Friday, the market focus turns to the Employment Cost Index and earnings from XOM and ABBV. According to WEEX Labs, the policy statement, technology earnings and inflation signals are likely to shape the rate path and valuations for tech stocks, while capital may rotate across mega-cap technology, AI infrastructure and rate-sensitive sectors. The firm said short-term market volatility could increase further. WEEX’s zero-fee stock token trading campaign is also ongoing.

Bitunix said markets face a packed macro and earnings calendar this week, with rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England landing alongside U.S. second-quarter GDP, core PCE data and earnings from major technology companies. The analyst’s argument is that investors are no longer trading a simple rate-cut versus rate-hike view. Instead, they are reassessing the future cost of capital worldwide as energy prices, tariff policy and AI capital spending interact at the same time. The note points to lingering shipping and oil-supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, continued threats to energy transport from the Houthis, and an emergency power-grid notice covering 17 U.S. states issued by the Department of Energy during a heat wave. It also highlights renewed tariff pressure from Donald Trump toward the European Union and rising AI infrastructure investment by companies including Samsung, SK Hynix and Nvidia. With earnings due from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon and Qualcomm, Bitunix says this week may show whether AI spending is turning into profit or whether markets will shift back toward cash flow, valuation discipline and the possibility of higher rates lasting longer.