Bitget CFD chief analyst Lewis Huang said in a livestream that this week’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, data and the Jackson Hole symposium are the main points of focus for markets. He said investors are looking beyond whether the Federal Reserve changes rates and are also watching how officials address inflation that remains above the 2% target, elevated long-term Treasury yields and fiscal pressure. According to Huang, if core PCE comes in above expectations and the Fed signals that it will keep policy tight or continue to stress fighting inflation, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar could find support, while rate-sensitive assets such as gold and the Nasdaq 100 may come under pressure. If inflation cools and officials leave room for policy flexibility, markets may start pricing in future easing again, which could support gold, non-dollar currencies and growth-oriented equity indexes. Huang added that the latest PCE reading was broadly in line with expectations, shifting attention toward the Jackson Hole gathering. He also said Middle East tensions and risks around the Strait of Hormuz could still lift oil prices and inflation expectations, and advised traders to watch the interaction among the dollar index, 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, gold and crude oil after major data releases.

A fresh batch of premarket headlines on Aug. 26 put inflation, AI, equities, and crypto derivatives in focus before the US trading session. Nvidia is set to report second-quarter earnings after Wednesday’s close, with Wall Street expecting revenue of more than $92 billion and roughly $103.7 billion for the third quarter. The report is being watched as a key test for the strength of the broader AI trade and for what management says about future guidance. On the macro side, the US July PCE price index came in at 3.7% year over year, flat from the prior month but above the 3.6% market expectation. Core PCE was 3.3%, in line with forecasts and unchanged from the prior reading of 3.30%. Interest-rate futures moved after the data, with markets pricing the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike at about 42%, up from roughly 36% before the release. Other items on the premarket slate included a Reuters survey projecting higher year-end 2026 targets for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, Alibaba’s HK$80 billion share placement for global AI expansion, MiniMax’s sharp growth in token consumption and revenue, increased HBM4 memory supply plans for Nvidia, and the expiry of about 81,700 BTC options on Deribit this Friday with a notional value of around $6.44 billion.

The latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation gauge most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, showed little change. Headline PCE inflation came in at 3.7% year over year, matching the June reading. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, was also unchanged from June at 3.3%. According to the report cited by BlockBeats, PCE data often lands close to investor expectations because it incorporates other inflation readings that have already been released. Even so, the print offered a clearer view of the inflation backdrop at a time when the Fed is still dealing with price pressures. Attention is now turning to Fed Chair Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver an important speech on Friday. The report noted that while July CPI data brought some relief, with core CPI falling to 2.5%, PCE has remained noticeably firmer because it assigns different weights to spending categories. There is still uncertainty over how Warsh views the inflation problem he inherited. He has not added his own economic projections to the quarterly dot plot, and he has not indicated whether he could support rate hikes at upcoming meetings, an issue that has already divided Fed officials.

Bitcoin may take its next directional cue from three events this week, according to BlockBeats: the U.S. July PCE inflation report, Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings, and remarks from Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. The report said BTC had climbed from about $63,000 to above $80,000 before slipping back below $79,000, while its 14-day RSI moved above 70, a sign of short-term overbought conditions. Markets expect July core PCE to rise 3.2% year over year and 0.18% month over month, versus 3.3% and 0.13% in June. A hotter-than-expected reading could revive concerns about further Federal Reserve rate hikes and weigh on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. CME FedWatch shows the bond market is pricing in a nearly 38% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Traders are also watching Nvidia’s earnings for signals on risk appetite, as well as whether Warsh will shift from his earlier preference for market-driven pricing and back the U.S. Treasury’s recent plan to increase long-dated bond buybacks.

The U.S. Commerce Department is due to release its July Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, price index at 20:30 Beijing time, a report markets are treating as a key input for the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. Expectations cited in the source point to headline PCE rising 0.1% month over month, while the year-over-year reading is seen easing to 3.6% from 3.7% in June. Core PCE is expected to climb 0.2% on the month, up from 0.1%, with the annual rate holding at 3.3%, marking the 65th straight month above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The report also notes several factors that could feed into core inflation, including rising prices across the AI supply chain, higher portfolio management fees linked to elevated stock market valuations, and higher energy costs tied to tensions in the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said equity valuation effects alone may have added about 0.11 percentage point to July core PCE on a monthly basis. Investors are also watching a broader change ahead: the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans a full revision of the PCE methodology at the end of September, with possible adjustments to categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, alongside potential historical revisions. CME FedWatch data show a 59.9% probability that the Fed holds rates unchanged in September and a 40.1% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. Markets are also awaiting this week’s Jackson Hole gathering for fresh signals from Fed Chair Warsh on inflation and the rate outlook.

Bitget UEX’s Aug. 26 market daily put three developments at the center of trading: a drop in crude after reports that the U.S. and Iran may restart talks, a sharp jump in South Korea’s DRAM export prices, and Nvidia’s rebound before its earnings release. According to the report, WTI and Brent both fell 2.12% as expectations of renewed negotiations reduced the geopolitical premium tied to the Strait of Hormuz. The same note said South Korea’s August DRAM export unit price climbed 401% year over year to $92,183 per kilogram, reinforcing a tight-supply narrative that lifted semiconductor and storage names. Nvidia rose 2.19% to $213.05, ending a seven-session losing streak ahead of its second-quarter results. In crypto, BTC traded around $78,770, ETH was down 1.37%, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.73 trillion, and 24-hour liquidations reached $624 million. The report also flagged continued spot ETF inflows and highlighted key macro events this week, including U.S. core PCE data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech.

Federal Reserve officials and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva struck a cautious tone ahead of Jackson Hole, keeping inflation and policy tightening at the center of the market’s focus. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said holding the current federal funds target range requires ongoing evidence that inflation is actually moving lower, and added that tighter policy would be appropriate soon if that evidence fails to appear. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, speaking separately, warned that the United States’ more than $40 trillion public debt would eventually face a "reckoning," even if no one can say when. Fresh data added to the pressure. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August, the lowest level in seven months and below expectations, even as assessments of current conditions improved. Expectations for the next six months weakened sharply, with consumers turning more pessimistic on business conditions and the labor market. At the same time, inflation expectations moved higher. The debate now turns to whether higher rates can address the drivers of inflation now cited by policymakers: tariffs, oil prices linked to the Iran war, and large-scale AI investment. Markets are watching two immediate events: the July PCE release and Friday’s Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, his first major address since taking office.

New Huo Tech said Bitcoin’s recent price action is showing several characteristics associated with the early stage of a bull market, after the broader crypto market broke out of its previous consolidation range and BTC held around the $77,000 area. The firm said the move has included a sharp rebound from lower levels, a fast rally, and consolidation near prior highs without a clear breakdown so far. At the same time, the institute argued that traders should distinguish between a short-covering rally and a fully established trend. It said part of Bitcoin’s recent upside came from forced short liquidations and position covering, which helps explain the speed of the move and means it may not yet signal a full return of long-term spot buying. New Huo Tech said the next confirmation points include whether spot Bitcoin ETFs can maintain net inflows at elevated levels, whether institutional allocation continues, and whether the Coinbase premium turns positive again. The report also pointed to roughly $1.92 billion of recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, an RSI (14) near 78, resistance between $78,500 and $82,000, and support near $73,500 to $72,400. It said macro conditions, U.S. regulatory developments, and a series of events over the next 30 days — including a procedural vote on the Clarity Act around Sept. 15, the SEC’s 60-day comment period, Jackson Hole, the September FOMC meeting, July PCE data, and August nonfarm payrolls — will remain central for the market.