Open-Source Models Are Pushing AI Compute Toward Capital Markets
Foresight says the capital structure behind AI infrastructure is changing fast. The AI-related capex of the top five cloud providers rose from 20%–30% of operating cash flow in 2020–2023 to nearly 94% in 2025, with confirmed 2026 capex already above $700 billion. The article argues that take-or-pay contracts, GPU lending, and rising public-market demand from open-source models are pushing compute toward pricing benchmarks, forwards, and derivatives. It also notes that after DeepSeek V4 launched, H100 rental rates rose about 7.5% within two weeks, while similar strength appeared around the launches of Kimi K3 and GLM 5.2. The larger point is that compute only becomes financialized once enough of it is traded openly, priced repeatedly, and separated from the balance sheets that used to absorb the risk.








