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Policy Regula
2026-08-05 03:53:02

Wall Street splits on proposed U.S. curbs on Chinese optical modules for AI data centers

A proposed U.S. move to restrict imports of Chinese optical components used in AI data centers has quickly become a new trading theme for the optical module sector. U.S. optical communications names including Marvell, Coherent, Lumentum, Applied Optoelectronics and Corning rose overnight as capital rotated into the domestic supply chain, while related A-share names tied to North America’s AI buildout came under pressure. Wall Street’s early read is not uniform. Morgan Stanley argued that if Chinese optical transceivers are ultimately restricted from the AI data center supply chain, non-Chinese vendors could gain share, with Coherent seen as the clearest beneficiary and AAOI and Fabrinet also positioned to capture incremental demand. At the same time, the bank said implementation would be difficult because non-Chinese capacity is not enough to meet AI capex demand and key upstream materials such as InP substrates still involve Chinese suppliers. Citi took a more cautious line, saying any ban would be hard to turn into a simple rule. It noted that seven of the world’s top 10 optical transceiver companies are Chinese and that they supply more than 50% of high-speed optical modules to major U.S. cloud providers. Citi expects exemptions are likely under real supply-demand constraints and said investors are now watching whether final rules hit third-country capacity, whether North American cloud firms reallocate orders, and whether overseas factories run by Chinese suppliers can continue to serve as a buffer.

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Wall Street splits on proposed U.S. curbs on Chinese optical modules for AI data centers
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