Unemployment

AI

2026-09-29 05:09:20

UCLA study says AI has not yet driven a sharp rise in new graduate unemployment

A study from the University of California, Los Angeles found that artificial intelligence has not yet caused a significant increase in unemployment among recent graduates. The research said the labor market is still absorbing new graduates at a stable pace, with no clear deterioration tied to the spread of AI so far. At the same time, the researchers warned that the longer-term effects of the technology still need close attention. They also flagged changing remote work patterns as another factor that should be monitored alongside AI adoption. The study suggests that while current conditions have not worsened in a pronounced way for recent graduates, structural effects on the job market could emerge over time as the technology continues to develop. The report was cited by Crypto Briefing.

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Anthropic

2026-09-11 08:10:16

Anthropic model says AI could lift U.S. GDP sharply while shifting gains to capital

Anthropic has published a new study, "Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI," that models how AI could reshape the U.S. economy between 2026 and 2030. The report lays out three scenarios — modest, substantial, and extreme — based on AI capability, adoption speed, automation, and resulting productivity gains. In every case, the economy grows. In the most aggressive scenario, U.S. GDP in 2030 stands 32.4% above a no-AI baseline and annual GDP growth reaches about 15%. The study also points to a much less even distribution of those gains. Knowledge workers, including software engineers, administrative staff, sales roles, and professional services, face the largest direct hit in the model. Under the extreme case, knowledge-work employment falls 21.5% from mid-2026 levels, unemployment for those workers rises to 17.9%, and the overall unemployment rate reaches 11.9%. Anthropic’s model suggests labor’s share of income could fall from 60% to 45.2% in the extreme scenario, while capital’s share rises to 54.8%. Even with the economy much larger, aggregate worker income barely increases, with most additional output going to capital owners. A separate survey of 10,980 U.S. adults conducted with Morning Consult found median public expectations closest to the report’s "substantial change" scenario.

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Anthropic

2026-09-10 08:30:51

Anthropic model sees AI boosting U.S. GDP by 2030 while sending more income to capital

Anthropic has released an economic study modeling how artificial intelligence could affect the U.S. economy by 2030. The research starts by setting assumptions on how much work AI can perform and how quickly companies adopt it, then estimates outcomes for GDP, wages, and unemployment. In the most aggressive scenario, AI affects about 30% of work tasks across the economy. U.S. GDP rises 32.4% compared with a no-AI baseline, while unemployment among knowledge workers climbs to 17.9% and the overall unemployment rate reaches 11.9%. Wages for knowledge workers are also 11.5% lower in that case. The study also points to a sharp shift in income distribution. Labor’s share of income falls from 60% to 45.2%, while capital income rises to 54.8%. Even with the economy expanding by nearly one-third, total income for workers increases just 0.5%, compared with an 81.4% gain for capital. Under less aggressive assumptions, the outcome is notably milder. Typical responses in a U.S. public survey are closer to a middle-range scenario, with GDP about 10% higher by 2030 and overall unemployment around 5%.

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nonfarm payro

2026-09-04 08:15:36

August Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Weak Employment Continues, Only Major Surprise Could Affect Fed Decision

The U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report is set to be released tonight, with the market expecting an addition of 56,000 jobs, following a surprise decline of 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%, while annual wage growth may slow to 3%. Morgan Stanley's chief economist Michael Gapen estimates that the revocation of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian immigrants could reduce payrolls by about 15,000, though gains in local government education, leisure, and hospitality sectors may provide support. Most economists believe that unless the data shows a major surprise, the report is unlikely to directly determine the Fed's rate decision at its September 15-16 meeting, with attention turning to next week's CPI. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated on Thursday that he would favor holding rates steady this month if upcoming data confirms cooling inflation. The market now sees a 50% probability of a rate hike in September, down from 63.2% on Wednesday.

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Anthropic

2026-08-24 07:18:09

Anthropic says AI has not pushed up unemployment, with a 12-month window on that view

Anthropic’s head of economic research, Peter McCrory, argues that AI has not caused an increase in U.S. unemployment so far, even as quality-adjusted AI output rose by more than 2,000% in both 2024 and 2025 and roughly one-fifth of U.S. firms have adopted AI in their operations. Writing in a recent long-form post, McCrory said the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in June, a level he described as consistent with full employment, and framed AI at this stage as a skill-biased, labor-augmenting technology that expands human capability rather than replaces workers outright. He supported that view with labor-market data and prior Anthropic research. McCrory said occupations heavily exposed to AI, including roles tied to tasks Claude is frequently used to automate, have not seen unemployment deteriorate faster than other jobs. He also pointed to a rebound in software engineering job postings since May 2025. At the same time, he acknowledged that younger workers are facing a tougher job search in AI-exposed roles, while arguing that this cannot yet be pinned entirely on AI because the U.S. has also been going through a broad non-recession labor-market cooling since 2022. McCrory also outlined three future scenarios that could break the current pattern: a software singularity, an economic singularity and a Coase singularity. For now, he said persistent “bottlenecks” in tasks that AI still cannot automate remain the main reason labor income and firm structure have not been fundamentally displaced.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-05 20:08:55

Fed Governor Cook Says Policy Has Not Caused Notable Unemployment

Federal Reserve Governor Cook said that, so far, policy has not caused significant unemployment, according to Jinshi. The statement was relayed by ChainCatcher. It is a short policy-regulation update, and the original quote is presented in full.

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US nonfarm pa

2026-07-23 20:40:16

U.S. May 2026 Payrolls Soar 172K, Blowing Past Forecasts; Steady Job Growth Complicates Fed's Rate Cut Timing

U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged 172,000 in May, far above the expected 85,000–105,000 range. Prior two months revised up by 93,000 combined. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Robust hiring and stable wages give the Fed room to stay cautious on rate cuts.

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Federal Reser

2026-07-15 12:43:49

Fed's Williams says inflation is still too high, sees 2% target reached in 2028

Federal Reserve official John Williams said inflation in the United States remains too high at about 4% and still needs to move back to the central bank’s 2% target. He said the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate for achieving that goal. Williams expects headline inflation to fall to about 3.25% by the end of this year, continue easing in 2027, and reach 2% in 2028. He also said real GDP growth is projected at 2% to 2.25% this year and is expected to stay around that level over the following two years. The unemployment rate, in his view, will gradually decline to 4% by 2028. He added that the U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace and that the labor market has shown resilience and stability. At the same time, he warned that supply disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict still pose risks to growth and the inflation outlook. Williams also said the full effects of surging investment in artificial intelligence on growth, employment, and inflation remain difficult to predict.

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