Goldman Sachs
2026-09-04 07:29:09Goldman Sachs Keeps a 12-Month Overweight on Stocks, but Turns More Defensive tactically
Goldman Sachs said on September 2 that the summer’s cyclical rotation is still intact, but the momentum is slowing. In its Global Opportunity Asset Locator report, the bank kept a 12-month overweight on equities and an underweight on credit, while shifting its tactical stance on stocks to neutral. The call is built on earnings strength: Goldman expects equities to keep outperforming bonds and credit over the next year, even as return upside fades with earnings growth and earnings revisions likely past their peak.
The report also flags a set of near-term risks that could lift volatility, including higher long-end rates, seasonal weakness, the U.S. midterm elections, and geopolitical stress. Goldman says bond yields are close to, or above, post-global-financial-crisis highs, and that the role of bonds as a portfolio hedge is weakening. That makes stock selection and diversification more important, in the bank’s view.
Goldman keeps an overweight on Asia and the U.S., while staying underweight Europe. It also argues that AI-heavy equity concentration has raised portfolio risk, even as AI-linked names remain the main driver of this year’s global equity returns.
On alternatives, Goldman kept a constructive view on gold and other real assets, maintaining a $4,900-an-ounce fair value target for gold by the end of 2026. Credit remains underweight, with spreads still tight and supply tied to AI capex adding pressure. The bank’s core message is to stay invested, buy dips, and manage risk through diversification and selective hedges.