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Perpetual Fut
2026-09-07 08:33:01

Why Perpetual Futures Jump Every 15 Minutes: Crypto’s Own Opening Bell

A paper cited by TechFlowPost finds that crypto perpetual futures show a recurring burst of activity at fixed clock times despite trading around the clock. Using tick-by-tick data from six Binance perpetual contracts — BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE and ADA — from Jan. 1, 2021 to Oct. 31, 2024, covering 1,400 continuous trading days, researchers Chan Kim and Peter Reinhard Hansen documented sharp increases in trade count, dollar volume and price movement at 0, 15, 30 and 45 minutes past each hour. Most of the jump appears within the first 10 seconds of those windows. The study argues that standardized candlestick intervals, exchange data formats and automated strategies effectively split a nonstop market into repeated micro trading sessions. The pattern also appears in smaller form at 5-minute and 1-minute boundaries, with the strongest burst at the top of the hour. Researchers used order-size patterns as indirect evidence that algorithmic participation rises during these windows, while control tests excluding funding settlement times still found the effect. The signal is statistically detectable but economically thin. A model built to predict 10-second returns around each 15-minute boundary reached 56.6% directional accuracy, yet the average gross return per trade was only 0.51 basis points before fees, far below Binance’s stated taker and maker fee levels in the sample period.

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Why Perpetual Futures Jump Every 15 Minutes: Crypto’s Own Opening Bell
Bitcoin
2026-09-07 08:24:18

Study finds recurring trading surges in crypto perpetuals every 15 minutes

A paper cited by MarsBit says crypto perpetual futures may trade around the clock, yet activity repeatedly spikes at fixed intrahour boundaries that resemble miniature opening bells. Using tick-by-tick data from six Binance perpetual contracts — Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin and Cardano — from Jan. 1, 2021 to Oct. 31, 2024, researchers Chan Kim and Peter Reinhard Hansen found sharp increases in trades, dollar volume and price movement at the start of each 15-minute interval, with the strongest burst at the top of the hour. Most of the move appears within the first 10 seconds. Across the six contracts, trade count in that 10-second window was 26% above normal, dollar volume was 32% higher and absolute price movement was 26% larger. The paper links the pattern to shared market structure rather than any single token: charting software, standard candlestick intervals, indicator recalculations and automated execution systems all cluster around the same time boundaries. The researchers also found a modest predictive signal in pre-window market data, but said it was too small to overcome fees. Their backtests showed 56.6% directional accuracy, yet the average gross return per trade was only 0.51 basis points, far below Binance’s stated maker and taker fees in the sample period.

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Study finds recurring trading surges in crypto perpetuals every 15 minutes
DeFi lending
2026-09-07 08:24:09

Paper links tax deferral incentives to hidden credit risk in DeFi lending pools

A working paper examining Venus, a DeFi lending protocol on BNB Smart Chain, argues that borrowers who use appreciated crypto as collateral to borrow dollar-pegged stablecoins may be shifting tax-motivated risk into shared lending pools. The authors — Lisa De Simone of the University of Texas at Austin, Peiyi Jin of the National University of Singapore, and Daniel Rabetti of the National University of Singapore — studied activity from Nov. 12, 2020 to July 31, 2022 across 15 major tokens on Venus. Their dataset covered about 13 million transactions and produced 1.36 million borrower-day observations, with roughly 3% of traders meeting the paper’s definition of default. The study uses the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, effective Nov. 15, 2021, as an external shock tied to expectations that future digital-asset activity could be reported to the Internal Revenue Service. According to the paper’s main estimates, borrowers inferred to be connected to the U.S. became 24.5% less likely to trade assets after the law took effect than international users, while borrowers with stablecoin debt showed an additional 23% drop in trading activity. The authors also estimate that a 1% rise in tax-driven illiquidity is associated with an 11.2% increase in defaulting accounts and a 39.6% increase in defaulted loan balances, while stressing that tax is only one source of risk alongside collateral volatility and liquidation design.

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Paper links tax deferral incentives to hidden credit risk in DeFi lending pools
DeFi lending
2026-09-07 08:33:01

Study links tax-deferral borrowing behavior to $133.34 million in cumulative default exposure on Venus

A working paper on tax planning and DeFi credit risk argues that a familiar crypto strategy — borrowing stablecoins against appreciated tokens instead of selling them — can shift private tax decisions into shared lending-pool risk. The paper studies Venus, a lending protocol on BNB Smart Chain, and tracks activity from Nov. 12, 2020 to July 31, 2022 across 15 major tokens. The sample includes about 13 million transactions and 1.36 million borrower-day observations, with roughly 3% of traders meeting the paper’s definition of default. The authors define default as a loan staying above Venus’s 60% loan-to-value threshold for at least seven days without additional deposits or new borrowing. Under that measure, cumulative default debt exposure reached $133.34 million, though the figure represents aggregated daily risk exposure rather than realized principal losses in a single event. To isolate tax-driven behavior from broader market moves, the paper uses the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, effective Nov. 15, 2021, as an external shock. It finds that borrowers inferred to be linked to the U.S. became less likely to trade after the law’s passage, especially those borrowing against stablecoin liabilities. The paper then ties lower wallet-level trading activity to weaker loan outcomes, arguing that smart contracts can observe collateral values and debt balances, but not borrower cost basis or tax incentives.

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Study links tax-deferral borrowing behavior to $133.34 million in cumulative default exposure on Venus
SHROOM
2026-09-05 04:49:28

SHROOM briefly tops $35 million market cap with 24-hour gain above 340%

GMGN market data showed on Sept. 5 that SHROOM, a meme coin tied to the Robinhood ecosystem, briefly pushed its market capitalization above $35 million after rising more than 340% in 24 hours. Trading volume over the same period reached $10.5 million. According to the project description cited in the report, SHROOM is designed to build a liquidity network for tokenized stocks. The protocol pairs SHROOM with stock tokens and other assets through protocol-owned liquidity pools, currently around 53 in total, to enable routed token swaps. It collects fees from trading activity and price volatility across those paired assets, including deviations from off-chain real-world prices, and automatically reinvests those fees to deepen liquidity. The report also said SHROOM holders can periodically receive MU rewards, with 228 MU distributed so far by Pons. Once liquidity reaches a critical scale, excess fees are intended to be used to buy back and burn SHROOM on the market, reducing supply. BlockBeats added a risk warning that most meme coins lack practical use cases and can be highly volatile.

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SHROOM briefly tops $35 million market cap with 24-hour gain above 340%
Policy and Re
2026-09-04 23:56:00

Crypto Projects Target a Narrow Gap in Robotics: Identity, Wallets and Micropayments

A growing group of crypto companies is trying to solve a practical problem in robotics rather than selling a vague future vision: how machines can pay for small real-world services and prove who they are when dealing with unfamiliar counterparties. The thesis starts with a simple mismatch. Traditional payment rails were built for relatively infrequent, higher-value transfers, while robots may need to pay a few cents at a time for charging, connectivity, location data or compute. In that setting, fixed card fees and wire costs quickly become uneconomic. The article traces how several projects are approaching different parts of that stack. GEODNET uses token incentives to build RTK positioning infrastructure. OpenMind is developing a common operating layer and testing gas-free USDC micropayments. IoTeX focuses on hardware identity and proof of real-world actions. peaq is building a broader machine registry, credit framework and settlement layer, while also experimenting with tokenized machine revenue through Initial Machine Offerings. At the same time, the report draws a clear boundary around the market. Most robots do not need autonomous payment or onchain identity because they already operate inside closed systems run by large companies such as Amazon, Tesla or other platform operators. That leaves crypto serving a smaller segment: open, cross-operator and non-closed-loop machine networks.

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Crypto Projects Target a Narrow Gap in Robotics: Identity, Wallets and Micropayments
Goldman Sachs
2026-09-04 07:29:09

Goldman Sachs Keeps a 12-Month Overweight on Stocks, but Turns More Defensive tactically

Goldman Sachs said on September 2 that the summer’s cyclical rotation is still intact, but the momentum is slowing. In its Global Opportunity Asset Locator report, the bank kept a 12-month overweight on equities and an underweight on credit, while shifting its tactical stance on stocks to neutral. The call is built on earnings strength: Goldman expects equities to keep outperforming bonds and credit over the next year, even as return upside fades with earnings growth and earnings revisions likely past their peak. The report also flags a set of near-term risks that could lift volatility, including higher long-end rates, seasonal weakness, the U.S. midterm elections, and geopolitical stress. Goldman says bond yields are close to, or above, post-global-financial-crisis highs, and that the role of bonds as a portfolio hedge is weakening. That makes stock selection and diversification more important, in the bank’s view. Goldman keeps an overweight on Asia and the U.S., while staying underweight Europe. It also argues that AI-heavy equity concentration has raised portfolio risk, even as AI-linked names remain the main driver of this year’s global equity returns. On alternatives, Goldman kept a constructive view on gold and other real assets, maintaining a $4,900-an-ounce fair value target for gold by the end of 2026. Credit remains underweight, with spreads still tight and supply tied to AI capex adding pressure. The bank’s core message is to stay invested, buy dips, and manage risk through diversification and selective hedges.

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Goldman Sachs Keeps a 12-Month Overweight on Stocks, but Turns More Defensive tactically