Arthur Hayes said in his latest essay, “Situationship,” that ETH remains one of the most disliked and overlooked large-cap tokens in the market, even though many of the top-10 tokens by market value have already pushed to fresh highs while Ether still has not cleared its 2021 peak of $5,000. Hayes argued that a new narrative is taking shape around enterprise RWA chains, saying companies such as Robinhood are likely to use customizable Ethereum Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum. In his view, Ethereum would serve as the secure settlement layer for those chains. He added that even if the share of gas fees that accrues directly to Ethereum is small, ETH is still the token driving the broader “tokenization of everything” theme. Hayes said his rough price target for ETH by the end of 2026 is $5,000, which he described as about 2.6x above current levels. He also said he has built a sizable position, cited ETH’s liquidity as a reason for comfort, and said he plans to sell out-of-the-money puts for additional yield while accepting the risk of buying ETH at a discount if the strike is breached.
Arthur Hayes said in his latest essay, “Situationship,” that ETH is the market’s most disliked and most easily forgotten large-cap “shitcoin.” He wrote that while most of the top-10 shitcoins by market capitalization have already reached new highs, ETH still has not broken above its 2021 all-time high of $5,000.
Hayes points to an Ethereum Layer 2 and RWA narrative
Hayes said the current narrative is that enterprise RWA chains, including ones run by companies such as Robinhood, will use customizable Ethereum Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum. In that setup, Ethereum would act as the secure settlement layer for those chains.
He added that even if the portion of gas fees directly attributable to Ethereum is small in practice, ETH is still the “shitcoin” that powers the tokenization of everything.
Price target, position size and options strategy
Hayes wrote: “My rough target for ETH by the end of 2026 is $5,000, or about 2.6x upside from current levels.”
He said he likes the trade because he has built a fairly sizable position and feels comfortable holding it. He also said ETH has strong liquidity, which means he could exit within minutes even if it represents a large share of Maelstrom’s portfolio.
Hayes added that he will also sell out-of-the-money put options to earn extra yield and is willing to accept the risk. If ETH falls below his strike price, he said he would buy it at a discount.
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