Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, up 3.26% on the day, as bulls tried to break a bearish trend for the first time in months. Market sentiment has shifted higher. Prediction market traders, at least for now, are still holding back.
The move extends what the article describes as Bitcoin’s sharpest rally in five months. Wednesday’s performance was its strongest one-day jump since March 4, and the price reached its highest level since June 1.
Myriad swung from a bearish lean to near-even odds
Prediction markets turn crowd wagers into live odds. On Myriad, which is run by Decrypt parent company Dastan, traders were leaning roughly 70% toward a dump to $55,000 just days ago. By Wednesday afternoon, those odds had collapsed toward a near coin flip: about 52% on the bullish $84,000 side and 48% on the bearish $55,000 side.
That is a sharp shift in short-term positioning. It is not the same thing as broad conviction.
Other prediction venues still showed hesitation
Skepticism is not uniform, and pricing differs across markets. Polymarket’s flagship 2026 price market was pricing a 56% chance that BTC would touch $55,000 before year-end, while assigning just 51% odds to a run to $75,000, as of last week.
On Kalshi, traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% shot at clearing $67,500 in August and a 31% chance of topping $70,000. The rally had already pushed through both thresholds on Wednesday.
A separate Polymarket contract put BTC above $75,000 for August at 47%, with roughly $12 million in volume.
Short-dated markets were squeezed while year-end markets barely moved
The article says near-term markets were squeezed by the rally, while year-end contracts barely moved. Prediction markets have been setting volume records as more traders use them to hedge real positions. In that framing, the Myriad swing looked less like a clean forward call and more like a recap of who got caught off guard.
Key chart levels sit at $70,284 and $68,000
The next line for Bitcoin traders is $70,284, described as the lower edge of a resistance band on the chart. A daily close above that level opens room toward $73,245.
If Bitcoin loses $68,000, it would drop back inside the range that has contained it since June. The report describes that same range as a compressive wedge, one that preceded crashes in October 2025 and January 2026.
Myriad resolves off Binance spot pricing
The Myriad market does not expire on a calendar date. It resolves the moment Binance’s BTC/USDT spot price touches either $84,000 or $55,000.
Live odds on Myriad currently place a 52% chance on the bullish outcome. So even after Bitcoin’s strong two-day run, prediction market traders appear, at most, cautiously optimistic.