CXMT Output Hits 240,000 Wafers a Month as DRAM Prices Are Seen Rising Further in 2026

ChainCatcher cited analysis saying CXMT, China’s main DRAM maker, reached a monthly wafer output peak of about 240,000 wafers at the end of 2025 and is expected to stay flat in 2026. The analysis said CXMT’s expansion is constrained by tighter U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment, especially EUV lithography tools. Meaningful capacity growth may not arrive until 2027 at the earliest, and even that depends on progress in China’s domestic equipment supply chain. Goldman Sachs said CXMT may cover only about 41% of China’s DRAM demand in 2026 and around 50% in 2028, indicating a supply gap that could persist for years. Pricing forecasts point in the same direction. TrendForce expects traditional DRAM contract prices to rise 90%-95% quarter on quarter in Q1 2026 and another 58%-63% in Q2. Jefferies sees further gains of 40%-50% in Q3 and 30%-40% in Q4. Server DRAM is rising even faster. Samsung and SK Hynix have asked customers including Microsoft and Google for Q1 price increases of 60%-70%. S&P Global expects Samsung’s traditional DRAM revenue per bit to rise 116% year on year to $0.79 in 2026, while Micron’s ASP is forecast to climb 54% to $1.06. Bernstein said SK Hynix’s DRAM gross margin could reach 92.7% in Q4 2026. Multiple forecasts say supply relief may not come until late 2027, or even 2028.