Goldman Sachs said in a Sept. 8 report on the Americas brokerage and crypto sector that a 34% increase in crypto market capitalization so far in the third quarter has prompted it to raise earnings forecasts and price targets for the companies it covers. Using updated quarter-to-date data, the bank lifted average third-quarter revenue estimates for its coverage group by 10%, raised median 2026 earnings per share by 1%, and increased the median target price-to-earnings multiple to 32.5x from 29.5x. Its median total return expectation for the group now stands at +3%.
The bank said trading volumes are still below the prior quarter, but growth in custody, staking, and stablecoin-related revenue tied to higher asset valuations has become the main reason for the upward revisions. Goldman wrote that the rise in crypto market value and a marginal improvement in trading volumes should support a moderate move higher in share prices.
Higher crypto valuations drive revenue revisions
Goldman updated several quarter-to-date crypto indicators in the report. Crypto market capitalization was up 34%. End-of-period USDC balances rose 1% quarter-on-quarter, while average balances fell 5%. August trading volume rebounded 16% from the prior month, but average industry trading volume for the third quarter to date was still down 8% versus the previous quarter.
Based on those changes, Goldman raised revenue forecasts for multiple companies and increased average third-quarter revenue expectations across its covered group by 10%.
- Staking and custody revenue was revised higher to reflect a larger crypto market cap.
- Stablecoin revenue was revised higher to reflect a larger stablecoin market cap.
- Digital asset gains and losses assumptions were revised higher to reflect the impact of rising market values.
- Trading volume forecasts were increased modestly because industry and company-specific volumes came in slightly stronger than previously expected.
Goldman said the effect of a rising crypto market cap on brokerages and crypto firms is not limited to direct digital asset gains or losses. Custody and staking revenue is linked to crypto valuations, while stablecoin revenue is linked to stablecoin market value. Even without a full recovery in trading activity, higher market values alone can support upward revisions to revenue estimates.
Company-level changes in platform assets and volume assumptions
At the individual company level, Goldman updated platform asset and trading volume assumptions for several names in its coverage universe.
- COIN: platform assets for the third quarter were raised to $288 billion from $269 billion, up 7%. Trading volume was raised to $138.5 billion from $127 billion, up 9%.
- BTGO: platform assets were raised to $6.6 billion from $6.2 billion, up 5%. Trading volume was raised to $4.5 billion from $4.1 billion, up 10%.
- CRCL: platform assets were raised to $27.6 billion from $27.3 billion, up 1%. Trading volume was cut to $800 million from $900 million, down 9%.
- ETOR: platform assets were unchanged at $19.1 billion. Trading volume was raised to $3.7 billion from $2.7 billion, up 39%.
- GEMI: platform assets were lowered to $90 million from $100 million, down 7%. Trading volume was raised to $370 million from $270 million, up 2%.
- GLXY: platform assets were raised to $9.5 billion from $9.1 billion, up 7%. Trading volume was raised to $800 million from $790 million, up 2%.
Goldman said those revisions reflect higher crypto market capitalization, a larger stablecoin market value, and some improvement in trading conditions at the margin.
Volumes remain soft, despite a 16% August rebound
Even with a sharp rise in market capitalization, trading activity remains weak. Goldman said average industry trading volume for the third quarter to date is down 8% from the previous quarter, showing that market activity has not fully recovered. August posted a 16% month-on-month rebound, which the bank described as a sign of marginal improvement.
The report contrasted weak volume with higher market values. Goldman said the rise in market capitalization was mainly driven by the macro environment and a recovery in crypto asset prices, while trading volume was constrained by retail participation and market sentiment. It raised volume forecasts only modestly because industry and company-specific volume data came in slightly better than expected, while keeping its overall stance cautious.
Revenue mix remains central to the analysis. For platforms that rely heavily on trading fees, weaker volumes weigh directly on revenue. For companies with custody, staking, and stablecoin businesses, higher market values can offset part of that pressure. Goldman said this is the core logic behind its latest forecast revisions.
Target prices and valuation multiples move higher
On valuation, Goldman raised the median target P/E multiple for its coverage group to 32.5x from 29.5x, an increase of 3.0 turns, to reflect higher market multiples. It also lifted median 2026 EPS by 1% and kept median total return potential at +3%.
Its target price changes were listed as follows:
- COIN: raised to $219 from $196, up 12%, with a Buy rating maintained.
- ETOR: raised to $36 from $32, up 13%, with a Neutral rating maintained.
- GLXY: raised to $28 from $25, up 12%, with a Neutral rating maintained.
- BTGO: raised to $7.25 from $6.50, up 12%, with a Neutral rating maintained.
- CRCL: raised to $92 from $81, up 14%, with a Neutral rating maintained.
- GEMI: raised to $4.00 from $3.50, up 14%, with a Sell rating maintained.
For GLXY, Goldman said the target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation. The digital assets segment uses 24.0x Q5-Q8 adjusted EPS, up from 23.0x previously. The data center segment uses 15.5x Q5-Q8 adjusted EBITDA, up from 14.5x previously. The corporate segment remains at 1.0x Q5 book value. Goldman said each of those adjustments reflects higher market multiples.
Goldman points to firms with more diversified revenue streams
Goldman now expects a median total return of +3% for brokerage and crypto stocks under its coverage. That view is based on updated earnings forecasts and target valuation multiples. The bank said rising crypto market capitalization and marginally better trading volume should support moderate upside in share prices, while volumes remain below last quarter and regulatory risk continues to limit the room for gains.
The report said investors should watch companies with more diversified revenue sources, especially platforms with larger contributions from custody, staking, and stablecoin businesses. According to Goldman, those companies are better positioned to absorb volatility in trading volume and benefit from rising market capitalization. For firms that depend mainly on trading fees, a recovery in trading activity remains the key variable.
TechFlowPost said the piece was a整理 and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage report from Goldman Sachs dated Sept. 8, 2026, combined with public market information. The article also said that the ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the text are the views of the brokerage analysts and represent only the position of their institution, not the view of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.
The original article also said that markets involve risk, decisions should be made independently, and the report should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.
