Prediction market heavyweights Kalshi and Polymarket are holding early-stage talks to raise fresh funding at valuations around $20 billion each, according to the Wall Street Journal. The discussions, described as preliminary, would roughly double both companies' valuations from late 2025. Neither firm has confirmed the figures, and no deal is finalized.
From $11B to $20B: The Valuation Leap
Kalshi, co-founded by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation last December. Its annualized revenue run rate recently hit about $1.5 billion, sources told the WSJ. Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, was valued at $9 billion last October after Intercontinental Exchange committed up to $2 billion in investment. A jump to $20 billion would mark a dramatic re-rating for both platforms.
Volume Explosion: $18.3B Monthly Combined
Dune data shows Kalshi's open interest exceeds $400 million, with Polymarket at $360 million. Weekly notional volume stands at $1.87 billion for Kalshi and $1.9 billion for Polymarket. Their combined monthly trading volume surged to about $18.3 billion in February, up from under $2 billion in August 2025. Kalshi leads in monthly volume, driven largely by sports betting contracts.
CFTC Green Light and Congressional Pushback
Kalshi operates under CFTC approval and is fully accessible to U.S. users, while Polymarket—after receiving CFTC clearance—recently opened a domestic waitlist but still requires a VPN for direct access. Both face rising regulatory scrutiny: U.S. lawmakers have proposed limits on contracts involving war, sports, and government actions. Lobbying efforts are intensifying on both sides.
Competition Heats Up
New entrants are piling in. Coinbase, Robinhood, DraftKings, Gemini, and Crypto.com have launched or announced prediction market products. Traditional exchanges Nasdaq and Cboe are also exploring binary betting offerings. As the field gets more crowded, Kalshi and Polymarket will need to defend their lead amid potential regulatory headwinds.