Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said prediction markets are not gambling but a system that uses prices to track truth, arguing that people who put money behind their views help turn emotional public debate into tradable probability.
Kalshi is smaller than many people assume. The company has 200 employees, most of them working out of an open office in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District, and it does not even occupy a full floor. Even so, Kalshi and platforms such as Polymarket have become increasingly visible, turning up as sponsors of major sports events and as reference points in media coverage of politics and financial markets.
Users can wager on the likelihood of a wide range of outcomes, including football scores, clinical trial results for new drugs, and what President Donald Trump might mention in a speech.
Kalshi was founded in 2018 and opened to the public in 2021 by two MIT graduates: Mansour and chief operating officer Luana Lopes Lara. In May, the company closed a new funding round at a $22 billion valuation. Mansour grew up in Lebanon, and Lopes Lara is from Brazil. Forbes estimated that both founders, now 30, have become billionaires.
Regulatory structure and political pressure
In the U.S., prediction markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, and approved platforms can operate nationwide. Gambling companies, by contrast, generally need licenses state by state.
A New York Times investigation said recent staff cuts and lighter enforcement at the CFTC have helped accelerate growth across the prediction market sector. The industry’s expansion has drawn new investors and new entrants, including figures with ties to the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket and also serves as a paid adviser to Kalshi. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was also described as looking at the prediction market space.
Lawmakers and regulators have argued that prediction markets are gambling under another label. The sector has also faced insider-trading concerns. In recent months, a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro placed bets on Polymarket tied to that event, while a White House teleprompter operator placed wagers on Kalshi over the contents of a Trump speech.
New York Attorney General Letitia James recently sued Kalshi, accusing it of operating illegally and sidestepping state gambling laws. Kalshi called the lawsuit “political theater” and said states do not have the authority to force it to stop operating. More than 10 states have introduced legislation this year aimed at prediction markets.
In disclosures tied to its latest funding round, Kalshi said its annualized trading volume had surged to $178 billion. Mansour said markets where people back their views with money can help “calibrate” a world that is overloaded with information but short on truth.
‘Financializing everything’ and what Kalshi is trying to build
Mansour said one of his ideas has often been taken out of context: “financializing everything.” He argued that prediction markets convert subjective, partisan and emotional disputes into a mathematical structure with visible incentives. In his view, people who do careful research, think rationally and search for the truth are more likely to make money, while those driven by bias or extreme positions are more likely to lose.
That structure, he said, creates a distinct sense of order because traders can better judge the motives behind other people’s views. In that contest, participants are trying to find the truth and earn returns at the same time.
Asked about the mix of activity on the platform, Mansour said users are highly active in sports contracts because many of them already like math, economics and trading, and enjoy thinking through probabilities and the variables that shape outcomes.
He said sports-related trading made up about 95% of volume last year and now accounts for close to two-thirds. One reason is simple: there are huge numbers of sports events every week, while political events do not arrive at the same pace. He added that sports markets provide liquidity that spills into contracts tied to crypto, politics and macroeconomics, helping other categories grow much faster.
On politics, Mansour said major event markets can reach $50 million to $100 million in size. As more participants enter, he said, pricing becomes more accurate and expectations move closer to reality.
Compliance, Polymarket and competing for market share
Asked what comes next for Kalshi, Mansour said there are limits to everything and that the company supports reasonable regulation. He said Kalshi has stayed committed to a compliant route from the start. In the early years, the company spent several years planning what categories it could launch and securing federal approval. At the time, he and Lopes Lara were 22 and spent the first four years of their careers working with lawyers to help build an industry framework.
On the current climate, he said any period of innovation will come with regulatory gaps. If regulation were perfect, he said, new things would not emerge in the country.
Asked about reports of tension with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, Mansour downplayed the idea that the two companies are his main competitive focus. He said the players he watches more closely are Robinhood, CME Group, Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, major banks and Zuckerberg as he looks at the sector.
Mansour said the real split with Polymarket is philosophical. In his telling, it comes down to whether a company chooses a regulated path or grows outside that framework. He said Polymarket has not built an adequate market-risk control floor and that, over the long run, this is not good for the company or for the broader sector.
Concentration, superforecasters and insider-trading controls
When asked why outsiders should believe the rules Kalshi supports are aligned with users’ interests, Mansour pointed to the market’s continued growth. If users were harmed and lost trust, he said, they would stop using the platform and tell others to do the same.
He said trading volume is not evenly distributed, though he did not provide an exact breakdown. Some users trade occasionally, some treat it as a hobby or side pursuit, and others participate full time as what he called superforecasters.
Those superforecasters process large amounts of information, he said. They may account for less than 2% of users but generate 70% to 80% of trading volume. Kalshi’s most accurate inflation forecaster, he said, is an ordinary person from Kansas, and the platform’s top 10 political forecasters come from a wide range of backgrounds rather than Wall Street, including blue-collar workers.
On insider trading, Mansour outlined three controls:
- Every user must complete identity verification, allowing the platform to trace abnormal trading quickly.
- Kalshi has built a surveillance system modeled on the New York Stock Exchange that automatically flags suspicious patterns.
- The platform publishes all trading data under a full-transparency approach.
He said transparency cuts both ways. Because everyone can see trading records, unusual moves can quickly trigger accusations of insider trading. But that visibility is also the control: abnormal behavior is exposed to public scrutiny, and anyone trying to trade on inside information would be doing it in full view.
Mansour said insider trading is a subtle issue. In one sense, inside information can make prices more efficient. Still, he said Kalshi bans it because it damages fairness and can drive ordinary users away. Even if some economists argue that insider trading could improve predictive accuracy and make market conclusions appear more trustworthy, he said fairness comes first.
Management style and rapid growth
Mansour said he and Lopes Lara work long hours and often through weekends as the company scales. As the business matures, he said, more tasks can be standardized and handed off to teams. Lopes Lara runs internal operations, while he handles external matters, and he said that split has worked well.
He described Kalshi as highly flat organizationally, with few management layers. The goal, he said, is to move projects faster and avoid managers taking credit for frontline contributors. The people doing the work are the people leading teams, which he said creates urgency and internal drive.
He tied that style to growing up in Lebanon, where uncertainty is common and adaptability matters. That experience taught him that the world itself is unstable, he said. With artificial intelligence changing almost every two weeks, companies need structures that can match that speed. For that reason, Kalshi deliberately avoids rigid hierarchy so teams can regroup quickly around major problems or fresh opportunities.
Asked about the most important advice from his parents, Mansour said his mother always told him to give 120% and push for the highest standard, because outcomes often come down to the final 20% of effort.
Quick answers
In a rapid-fire section, Mansour said the Kalshi trade that recently caught his attention was a contract tied to compute power pricing.
His favorite interview question for job candidates: “What do you think of Elon Musk?”
His most contrarian view: the success of any great company does not mainly depend on executives.
Does he see himself as a manager? “No, I’m not good at managing people.”
The last question he asked AI: the odds that Democrats win the 2028 midterm election. He added that AI can now use Kalshi data in its analysis.
On bad advice for young founders, Mansour said people constantly tell entrepreneurs to collect as much advice as possible, but there is no universal formula for starting a company. In his view, people rely too much on others’ opinions, and many like giving advice because it makes them feel superior even when most of it has little value.
His advice to young founders: “Don’t treat my words as truth. Within what you can control, experiment boldly and take risk.”
His best advice on meetings: “If you don’t need the meeting, don’t have it.”