Lenovo said at ISC 2026 that DRAM and NAND pricing has entered a structural upswing and is unlikely to return to early-2025 levels any time soon. CFO Winston Cheng described the cost surge as "unprecedented" and said the company has lifted memory inventory to about 50% above normal levels, covering DRAM, LPDDR, DDR, GDDR, and HBM.
Price moves broke away from expectations in late 2025
According to Lenovo’s presentation, the current price run began to move outside expected ranges in the third quarter of 2025 and has not reversed since. Server DRAM quotes from Samsung and SK Hynix reportedly rose by 60% to 70%. Micron said it could meet only about 55% to 60% of demand even for core customers. The report also said hyperscalers including Google and Microsoft have been lining up for supply.
Lenovo’s view is that this is not a standard cyclical shortage. Demand is only part of the story. The larger shift is that memory makers are reallocating capacity toward products with higher returns.
HBM is taking a larger share of DRAM wafer capacity
At the center of the supply squeeze is HBM. Lenovo said HBM is already consuming about 23% of DRAM wafer capacity, with that share still increasing. It also pointed to a conversion ratio of roughly 3:1: each additional unit of HBM output displaces about three units of general-purpose memory supply. As AI servers absorb more high-bandwidth memory, consumer markets are left with less available capacity.
That shift is pushing Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron toward server-grade and enterprise components. Lenovo argued that this makes the current shortage different from earlier cycles where fresh expansion could bring relief more quickly. In this case, consumer memory supply is being deprioritized by design.
New capacity may not arrive until 2028
Lenovo said meaningful new capacity is unlikely to come online before 2028, while a new pricing baseline may not emerge until 2030. Even then, the company expects memory prices to remain well above 2024 and 2025 levels rather than returning to prior norms.
The cost pressure is expected to pass through to end devices. Lenovo said PCs, game consoles, smartphones, and other products using memory or SSDs could face higher pricing pressure for at least five years. Its decision to hold inventory at 50% above normal levels reflects a defensive response to that outlook.