Polymarket now shows a 91% probability that Moonshot finishes August as the second-ranked Chinese AI company on Arena.ai, up 72% in 24 hours. Z.ai, the rival candidate, sits at 5%, down 70% in the same window. The prediction market will settle against a snapshot of Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard taken at 00:00 Beijing time on September 1 — that's 12:00 ET on August 31 — with Style Control turned off and Labs-based ranking applied. Only companies rooted mainly in China's tech ecosystem are counted, including Alibaba, Moonshot AI, Baidu, Zhipu AI, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent and StepFun, among others. The final result is whichever company holds Lab Rank No. 2 within that group. If the Lab Rank can't be determined, the market compares each company's highest-ranked model, then Arena Score, and only as a last resort falls back to alphabetical order by company name.
Polymarket now shows a 91% probability that Moonshot finishes August as the second-ranked Chinese AI company on Arena.ai, up 72% in 24 hours.
Z.ai, the rival candidate, sits at 5%, down 70% over the same stretch.
Settlement rules
The market settles against Arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard, with a snapshot taken at 00:00 Beijing time on September 1 — 12:00 ET on August 31. The ranking is read with Style Control off and Labs-based ordering applied.
Only AI companies rooted mainly in China's tech ecosystem are in scope. The roster includes Alibaba, Moonshot AI, Baidu, Zhipu AI, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent and StepFun, among others.
How the result is determined
The market resolves to whichever company holds Lab Rank No. 2 among that group. If the Lab Rank can't be determined, the comparison moves to each company's highest-ranked model; a further tie goes to Arena Score; only if still deadlocked does the market fall back to alphabetical order by company name.
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