Waller’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut resets September hike odds as AI names head into a crucial earnings week
Markets started the new week repricing the Federal Reserve after Chair Waller’s first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. He said recent improvement in PCE and CPI had not yet produced a “meaningful improvement” in underlying inflation and warned that the Fed still had work to do if inflation failed to return to the 2% target clearly and quickly enough. Traders moved fast: the implied probability of a September rate hike jumped from about 40% to 62.6%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose roughly 12 basis points to around 4.36%. U.S. equities closed lower on Friday, with the Dow down 0.02%, the S&P 500 off 0.25%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.52%. Semiconductor stocks gave back gains after the post-NVIDIA rally, while cloud and software shares outperformed on expectations that AI commercialization could direct a large share of inference spending toward Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Barclays said AI model companies may send $35-$45 of every $100 in revenue to inference compute, with cloud vendors capturing about $10-$20 in operating profit. Commodities also reacted sharply. Gold fell more than 3% and dropped below $4,400, touching $4,396 and breaking its 200-day moving average, while silver lost more than 4%. Oil moved the other way after U.S.-Iran tensions escalated near the Strait of Hormuz. The week ahead centers on the Sept. 4 U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report and a packed slate of AI-related earnings, including Broadcom, Dell, Snowflake, Credo, MongoDB, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, and Ciena.








