The 20-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV software ETF dropped to 0.58, a low not seen since 2023 and 2024. Both prior instances preceded massive Bitcoin rallies. IGV has reclaimed its 200-day moving average while Bitcoin remains well below it.
Since Feb. 28, bitcoin has risen more than 5% and climbed back above $69,000, while software ETF IGV has dropped over 2%. Their correlation briefly fell from nearly 1.0 to 0.13.
Bitcoin fell below $64,000 following US stock selloff, Ethereum holds $1,800 support; IBM plunges 13% in its worst single-day drop since 2000, with BTC correlation to tech stocks hitting a record high.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared a chart showing Bitcoin remains highly correlated with US SaaS tech stocks, warning the recent rebound might be a dead cat bounce. BTC is at $73,731, down 30% from its peak.
Bitcoin slipped to $69,917, pushing the Fear and Greed Index to 11. Crypto assets and metals fell while U.S. equities held firm. MSTR dropped 5%, AI miners were mixed.
Bitcoin has risen about 3.5% to $68,000 since the Middle East conflict began, outperforming gold, silver and major U.S. equity indexes. Falling futures open interest, negative funding rates and the return of the Coinbase premium point to shifting market structure.
Bitcoin rose more than 5% and moved back above $69,000 while the IGV software index fell over 2%. Their correlation briefly dropped from near 1 to 0.13, showing a sharp short-term break in price behavior.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee warns the S&P 500 will surge to 7,300 before a 20% bear market. He argues high oil prices favor US stocks, tech valuations are attractive, and crypto speculation has been cleared.
