NDV Research argues that the US debt story has moved beyond a cyclical concern and into a long-duration monetary problem, with the country’s fiscal math increasingly pointing to debasement rather than austerity or default. In a lengthy market note published by MarsBit, the firm says this is the same setup that has historically favored scarce assets, and it places Bitcoin alongside gold as a potential hedge against a prolonged decline in purchasing power. The report points to several milestones: US debt reaching $40.1 trillion on Aug. 28, 2026, net interest costs of $970 billion in fiscal 2025, and Congressional Budget Office projections showing annual net interest above $1 trillion in fiscal 2026 and $2.1 trillion by 2036. NDV says gold has already been repriced, with the European Central Bank reporting that gold accounted for 27% of global central bank reserve assets in June 2026, ahead of US Treasuries at 22%. Bitcoin, in NDV’s view, remains the lagging asset in the same macro trade. The firm says Bitcoin’s market capitalization is about $1.58 trillion, or roughly 5% of gold’s, even as regulatory channels, ETF inflows, and institutional access continue to improve. NDV also disclosed performance figures for its own funds, saying it has spent three and a half years testing the tradeability of this thesis through live portfolio returns.

NextGen Digital Venture argued in a commentary republished by WuBlockchain that Bitcoin may have finally found the catalyst it had been missing, after a sharp move on Aug. 19 coincided with a U.S. Treasury decision to expand long-dated bond buybacks. The article said Bitcoin rose 8.7% that day and briefly approached $69,700, while roughly $1 billion worth of short positions were liquidated, with some estimates placing the total near $1.4 billion. In the author’s view, the market treated the Treasury move as a form of easing: long-end yields fell, the dollar weakened, gold climbed and Bitcoin surged. The piece does not present that rally as proof that a bottom is already in. Instead, it argues that short covering can produce violent but temporary moves, especially after long declines. It points to another signal it considers more important: spot trading volume. According to the article, Bitcoin spot volume since August has dropped to its lowest level since 2019, a condition the author associates with prior bottoming zones rather than market tops. The commentary also reviews competing institutional views from VanEck, Glassnode and Galaxy, showing that market participants remain split between a still-unfinished capitulation phase and the start of a new liquidity-driven turn.

Circle Internet Group reported second-quarter revenue and reserve income of $701 million, up 7% year over year, with net income from continuing operations reaching $48 million after a loss in the prior-year period. The company also posted adjusted EBITDA of $143 million, while quarter-end USDC circulation stood at $73.3 billion and on-chain transaction volume hit $14.8 trillion. The numbers showed that Circle still depends heavily on USDC supply and interest rates, even as growth in circulation slowed and net outflows appeared during the quarter. At the same time, the company used its earnings report to highlight a broader push into regulated financial infrastructure, including the Sept. 16 launch of Arc mainnet, an expanding Circle Payments Network, Agent Stack products, and new trust-bank approvals in the U.S. The market response to CRCL remains split. Morgan Stanley cut its rating and target price, citing slower USDC growth and rising distribution costs, while TD Cowen initiated coverage with a buy rating. Investors are also watching the proposed CLARITY Act and upcoming September catalysts as they assess whether Circle’s longer-term infrastructure strategy can offset near-term pressure on reserve-driven earnings.

Jason of NextGen Digital Venture used the latest sell-off in South Korea’s equity market to argue that getting the long-term theme right is not enough if price, time horizon, leverage, and position size are ignored. From July 10 to July 16, 2026, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell 8.77%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 9.97% from July 10 to July 17. In the article, Jason says the pullback does not prove the artificial intelligence story is over, but it does force investors to revisit what happens when crowded positioning and leverage meet a sudden change in conditions. He points to market concentration as one pressure point. As of July 15, 2026, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix made up 52% of the KOSPI by market capitalization, up from 34% at the end of 2025. He also cites disclosures from South Korea’s Financial Services Commission showing that market value in single-stock-linked leveraged products rose from KRW 4.4 trillion on May 27 to KRW 11.9 trillion on July 15. Jason does not claim that leverage liquidations explain every sell order, noting that the Bank of Korea raised rates on July 16 and that oil prices, geopolitical risks, and AI stock valuations were all shifting at the same time. His argument is narrower: when index concentration is high and leverage tied to a few names expands quickly, the market structure itself can amplify the first wave of selling.

In this in-depth conversation, NDV founder Jason Huang dissects the AI bubble and the MicroStrategy myth, while exploring the core logic of the crypto market, offering a top-tier institutional perspective for investors.

NDV founder Jason Huang attributes the current crypto market decline to Bitcoin cyclical selling, US stock pullback, liquidity contraction, and MicroStrategy debt crisis. He believes a FTX-like event is needed to trigger panic capitulation. He favors stablecoins and commodities while staying cautious on AI stocks and semiconductors.