According to CME's FedWatch tool on August 9, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in September is 55.6%, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike stand at 44.4%.
According to PPP prediction market data, Polymarket traders now see a 59% chance that the United States will end its blockade of Iran by Aug. 31, down 16% over the past 24 hours. The probability for an end by Sept. 30 fell 11% to 77%. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi vowed to continue Tehran's resistance stance, saying Iran has suffered casualties from U.S. and Israeli strikes and will neither forget nor forgive those killed.
Patrick Witt, a White House crypto adviser, said in an X post that Senate negotiations on the CLARITY Act have stalled after Chuck Schumer and so-called pro-crypto Democrats blocked a procedural vote. He warned that the bill's chances of passing would drop sharply if it fails to advance by Sept. 15.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a notice reminding regulated entities that list, promote, or accept trading in event contracts to provide consumers with clear and accurate product pricing information. The notice stresses an obligation to display accurate derivative pricing and to avoid misleading market participants. The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight and Division of Market Participants stated that registered firms and associated persons must comply with regulatory requirements, ensure users fully understand product attributes in CFTC-regulated markets, and strengthen disclosure oversight for intermediaries, affiliates, and partners. The agency specifically flagged that using common American odds to show event contract prices can mislead traders about the nature of the product, and may prevent users from accessing key trading information such as market depth and price impact. The CFTC also said market participants should clearly present that products are event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges, and warned that misleading pricing displays connected to regulated products may violate U.S. federal rules prohibiting manipulative trading practices.
According to PPP, a prediction market monitoring tool, the chance of T1 defeating HLE in the LCK third split is currently 53% on predict.fun. This match will be played today at 4 PM as a best-of-three series. Looking at the results so far in the third split, T1 have a 2-1 record. They lost their first match 0-2 to KT, but then won against GEN by 2-0 and against DK by 2-0, giving them two consecutive wins. On the HLE side, the team has not won a single match, with a 0-3 record. They lost to DK 1-2, to KT 1-2, and to GEN 1-2, in that order. Importantly, each of HLE’s three losses required three games, meaning the team has been close to victory in every series. Therefore, although HLE are winless, their performances have been tight. For T1, this upcoming match offers a chance to secure a third straight win. The prediction market currently assigns a 53% probability to that outcome, suggesting a slight edge for T1.
Prediction platform predict.fun has listed a new event asking how much MarsCoin's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will reach before October 2026. Platform data puts the odds of a $75 million FDV at 85%, $100 million at 65%, and $150 million at 26%.
Bitcoin traded at $64,938 after a softer U.S. jobs report pushed Treasury yields lower, knocked the dollar down 0.5%, and trimmed September rate-hike odds to 40% from 55% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch. But the chart still shows a death cross, with the 50-day EMA below the 200-day EMA and price boxed in below both. The setup leaves $65,000 as the near-term line in the sand, while $60,000 and $58,000 remain key downside levels. On Myriad, traders are still pricing nearly 65% odds that BTC drops to $55,000 before it reaches $84,000.
Tom Lee says the market's dovish response to the July jobs report reflects "inflation confusion syndrome." He sees inflation on a downward path, and notes the probability of a September rate hike has fallen below 40%, down from 75% two weeks ago. He warns against fighting the last war.
