According to ChainCatcher, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning about American odds risk in prediction markets. The warning was reported on August 7. It centers on the American odds format and the risk it poses when used in prediction market products. The CFTC's statement, as carried by ChainCatcher, does not spell out additional measures or further details. No specific platform was named. The update remains a brief regulatory notice at this stage.

The U.S. labor market is showing clear signs of cooling, and bitcoin traders are weighing two competing forces: a friendlier Federal Reserve versus deepening recession anxiety. July nonfarm payrolls shrank by 23,000 jobs, far worse than the 85,000 gain economists had penciled in — a 108,000 miss that marks the third-largest monthly employment drop since the pandemic struck in 2020. June's reading was revised down by 37,000, adding to the picture of softening hiring. Futures markets responded quickly. The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September slumped to roughly 40% from about 70% before the data, as investors repriced the expected policy path. Lower odds of tightening typically support risk assets, analysts say, but the reason behind them — a deteriorating economy and jobs market — can just as easily stoke risk-off sentiment. Gold broke above $4,400, a sign that haven demand is climbing while investors reassess the macro backdrop. For bitcoin, the calculus has two sides. A dovish pivot from the Fed could lift risk appetite and benefit crypto, but persistently weak employment may cap any rally. The market now awaits next month's nonfarm payrolls to see whether the slowdown is confirmed. If hiring keeps softening, it could solidify expectations of easier Fed policy — while at the same time intensifying worries about an economic downturn.

On Polymarket, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September has reached 48%, up 5% in the past 24 hours and 24% over the past month. The odds of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September have dropped to 49%, down 21% from a month ago. The shifts come before the release of the July U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 20:30 Beijing time. Wall Street forecasts span 18,000 to 83,000 new jobs, an unusually wide range. Market participants warn that a significant deviation from expectations could cause sharp moves in stocks, bonds and the dollar. The unemployment rate remains the Fed's central focus, they say. Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said the Fed could hike as many as three more times this year if the labor market appears "all clear," while federal funds futures currently price only one increase. That contrast leaves rate expectations sensitive to the upcoming jobs data.

CME FedWatch data on Aug. 7 put the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at September's meeting at 56.5%, with the probability of holding rates steady at 43.5%. The reading follows a Financial Times report citing people familiar with the matter who said Kevin Warsh is prepared to raise rates at the September meeting if inflation data due in the coming weeks proves strong and expectations for higher borrowing costs keep climbing.

The US Senate heads into recess on August 7, leaving the CLARITY Act with a razor-thin window to pass before that date, according to Cryptopolitan. If senators fail to vote this week, the next realistic window doesn't open until September. Miss that, and the legislation could slip past the midterm elections, with enactment deferred to 2027 at the earliest. The key sticking point remains unchanged: Democrats insist on adding ethics rules that would restrict crypto-related employment for senior government officials, language the merged draft has yet to incorporate. In the vacuum between clarity and uncertainty, institutional heft is proving easier to sustain. ARK Invest increased its holdings in both Coinbase and Circle this week, and Circle received a federal national trust bank charter in July. Smaller crypto companies and DeFi projects continue to face mounting pressure. Polymarket now pegs the probability of CLARITY Act passage in 2026 at just 23%, a sharp drop from the 67%–75% forecast Galaxy Research published in mid-May.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a motion to proceed on other legislation on Aug. 5, leaving the Crypto Market Structure Act, better known as the CLARITY Act, off the Senate agenda, according to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett. The motion to proceed is a key procedural step in the chamber's legislative process, and Thune's decision to prioritize other bills signals that the CLARITY Act's core disagreements remain unresolved, especially over enforcement authority for the ethics clause. The bill previously cleared the Senate Banking Committee, but Democrats and Republicans are deadlocked on whether the Department of Justice or state attorneys general should serve as the lead enforcement agency for rules barring federal officials from issuing digital assets. Maryland Sen. Alsobrooks has said she will not support the bill if enforcement is limited to the DOJ rather than preserved for the states. With the Senate heading into its August recess, the legislative window for the CLARITY Act is closing quickly. Thune's agenda choice strengthens market expectations that a full floor vote before recess is unlikely. On the prediction market Predict.fun, the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 has dropped to 16%.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision on July 29 U.S. time, or early July 30 in Beijing, with markets facing what BlockBeats described as one of the hardest FOMC meetings in recent years to price. CME FedWatch data shows traders are assigning about a 71% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range. At the same time, markets still see roughly a 29% chance of an unexpected 25 basis point increase. The uncertainty is being driven largely by oil prices and inflation. Repeated tensions in the Middle East have pushed up energy prices and revived concern that inflation pressure could heat up again. Recent inflation readings, however, have also shown signs of cooling, leaving the market struggling to judge whether the Fed needs to move immediately. Wall Street broadly expects that even if the Fed holds this week, Chair Kevin Warsh could still deliver a hawkish message. Investors are watching three points closely: whether the statement hardens its language on inflation risks, whether any dissenting votes in favor of a hike emerge, and whether Warsh leaves room for additional rate increases later this year. According to the report, the bigger market risk is a higher projected rate path, which could lift Treasury yields and mortgage rates while pressuring growth stocks and other rate-sensitive assets.

U.S. Senator Jon Husted publicly backed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on July 28, saying the country needs a clear, enforceable regulatory framework that supports innovation and jobs if it wants to remain a leader in digital assets. The bill would create what is described as the first comprehensive federal framework for crypto regulation in the United States, splitting oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It would classify tokens into three categories, give the CFTC exclusive authority over digital commodity spot markets, and leave the SEC in charge of assets that still resemble securities. At the same time, Galaxy Research lowered its estimate of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 30% from 50%. Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of research, said the Senate’s 60-vote threshold remains the main obstacle and that supporters may not yet have even a simple majority. A revised version of the bill would also bar the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges, and their spouses from receiving compensation through issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their terms through January 2029, while requiring covered officials to sell crypto holdings or place them in a blind trust.