Polymarket's U.S.-Iran conflict prediction markets topped $529 million in total volume, a record for the platform's 'World' category. The Khamenei succession market settled at 100% after his death, as traders now pivot to ceasefire and regime collapse odds.
January CPI came in below forecasts with core inflation at 2.5% (lowest since 2021), briefly boosting crypto before weekend pullback. Focus shifts to PCE, retail sales, and Fed minutes as rate-cut bets remain cautious.
Wintermute's latest report blames Fed's hawkish pivot and Iran deal breakdown for $600M in long liquidations over the weekend. Strategy bought 1,587 BTC at $63K; all eyes on Friday's PCE data.
Trump has formally nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve after Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Following the announcement, market pricing for a June 2026 rate cut moved closer to 50%.
Polymarket markets on Taiwan politics show a 34% chance that Zheng Liwen will directly meet Xi Jinping before the end of June 2026, while contracts imply only a 12% chance that Lai Ching-te loses the presidency in 2026.
Prediction market Polymarket shows a 20% chance the US government will confirm alien life in 2026, while Kalshi puts it at 22.5%. Trump pushes UAP file release, FBI confirms files delivered. Three pastors report secret meetings with intelligence officials to prepare churches.
President Trump says he may announce the next Fed chair in about a week, earlier than expected. Polymarket and Kalshi show BlackRock's Rick Rieder leading with 34%-47% odds. Powell warns on debt sustainability; markets show mixed reactions.
Prediction markets are already pricing the 2026 WBC opener. Polymarket's WBC contracts have passed $1.4 million in volume, with Chinese Taipei listed at roughly 65% implied odds against Australia.
