Polymarket's contract on a US military entry into Iran in April climbed as high as 99%, with Iran-related prediction markets topping $200 million in volume as military and diplomatic signals intensified.
BlackRock bought over 17,642 BTC via its IBIT ETF in a week, worth $1.28B, pushing BTC past $73K. Polymarket sees an 84% chance of BTC returning to $75K in March.
Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 surged to 70%. The bill's pivot—banning interest for banks but allowing retail rewards—may save Coinbase's $1.3B revenue and unblock the stalemate.
Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 60%, citing a shrinking Senate timetable and unresolved policy disputes before the August recess.
A Polymarket contract tied to ZachXBT’s report on alleged insider trading drew about $40 million in volume. On-chain data shows several wallets heavily backed Axiom before the reveal, generating profits above $1 million.
PlanB said Bitcoin’s true bottom may still be ahead, with short-term data suggesting more than a 50% chance of further downside toward the 200-week average near $61,000 or realized price around $53,000.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard gunboats fired on at least one tanker and turned back over 20 vessels on April 18, sending Polymarket's April 30 normalization odds down 41% to 28%. The May contract holds at 69% Yes, but daily vessel counts remain in single digits.
KMT chair Cheng Li-wun's April visit to China confirmed after official invitation from Beijing. Polymarket contract on Xi-Cheng meeting odds jumped from 38% to 96% within hours, with $436K volume and 4% still betting No.
