Bitcoin fell nearly 2% on Monday, slipping back below the $80,000 mark in thin holiday liquidity, erasing most of the weekend gains. The retreat came as U.S. markets were closed for Labor Day, reducing market depth and increasing short-term volatility. CoinGlass reported $178 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long and short positions relatively balanced. Liquidity clusters are concentrated around $80,500 and $78,800. QCP Capital noted that volatility has contracted sharply, and traders are waiting for a new catalyst. This week's U.S. inflation data, due Thursday and Friday, could be the key event to set the direction and potentially alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. Despite the pullback, Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee highlighted Bitcoin's resilience, saying the fact that it held high ground even after strong U.S. jobs data—which typically boosts bond yields and the dollar—suggests the market does not view potential Fed hikes as the sole driver of price action. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain in the spotlight, with a single-day net inflow of $730 million, the highest since January.

QCP Capital said in its latest Market Colour note that the August U.S. jobs report came in much stronger than expected, easing concerns about an economic slowdown and pushing market attention back toward inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above the 55,000 consensus and sharply higher than July’s revised 21,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month. According to QCP, crypto assets remained supported over the past week. Bitcoin briefly moved above $82,000 before pulling back to around $79,300, while Ether held near $2,500. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $770 million in net inflows from Sept. 1 to Sept. 4, including a single-day net inflow of $730.8 million on Sept. 3 that reversed the roughly $236.5 million outflow seen on Sept. 1. QCP said recent price action has been driven more by macro changes than by crypto-native catalysts. It added that traders appear cautious ahead of fresh inflation data, with BTC struggling to clear the $80,000-$82,000 range and ETH facing selling pressure above $2,500. The market is now watching Aug. PPI on Sept. 10 and Aug. CPI and core CPI on Sept. 11.

QCP Capital's latest weekly report reveals that Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech sent the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 70% before settling back to 45-50%. Bitcoin fell 2.5% in a single day then recovered, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their first net outflow in nine days, totaling $202 million. The dollar index dropped below 99.5, allowing gold, silver, and BTC to reclaim lost ground. The Treasury will launch its first long-end liquidity support operation on September 9, raising the purchase cap to at least $40 billion. The 30-year bond auction yield hit 5.216%, the highest since 2001. July PCE came in at 3.7% (core 3.3%), and Brent crude surged 10% on a week due to a Strait of Hormuz attack and a Qatar LNG force majeure. Fed Governor Waller said he would support a pause if data trends continue, and ADP employment logged only 38,000, the weakest since January.

QCP Capital noted that one week after the Jackson Hole symposium, market focus has shifted to the sustainability of hawkish rate repricing. Weak labor data and comments from Fed Governor Waller have brought the September policy discussion back to a choice between holding rates steady or hiking. The U.S. Treasury will launch its first expanded long-dated bond buyback on September 9, alongside concentrated issuance of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. Next week's CPI data will also be watched. In crypto, spot demand has rebounded, with BTC trading in the $76,700–$81,500 range. ETF flows recovered strongly on Thursday after prior outflows. Leverage remains controlled, and resistance comes from supply near highs rather than crowded long positions. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls report will be a key test.

Bitcoin failed to secure a clean move back above $80,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a cautious tone on inflation in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. BTC turned volatile after the Friday Wall Street open, briefly falling to $78,442 on Bitstamp before circling near $79,500. TradingView data showed the pair was down about 1% at the time of writing. In his first keynote at the annual event, Warsh said recent downside surprises in the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures data did not convince him that underlying inflation trends had materially improved. He also recommitted to the Fed’s 2% inflation target and said the central bank would avoid reviving forward guidance as a standard policy tool. The report said US equities held firm on his remarks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both up about 0.5%. On the crypto side, analysis pointed to derivatives positioning as a key factor for any sustained BTC move higher. QCP Capital said a healthier structure would require funding rates to remain contained and open interest to rebuild gradually. CoinGlass data showed BTC/USD was up 26.35% month-to-date, marking its strongest August performance since 2017.

QCP Capital said Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gain since March 2024 last week, rising more than 20% and briefly touching about $79,500. The trading desk linked the move to a sharp turn in rates markets after the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield neared 5.3%, close to its highest level since 2007, before the Treasury said it would raise the size of long-end liquidity support buyback operations from a maximum of $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion starting Sept. 9. QCP said long-end yields then fell, the dollar weakened, and both Bitcoin and gold moved higher. It added that positioning changes accelerated the initial breakout, while spot demand kept building afterward. U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs drew a combined roughly $2.6 billion in net inflows last week, which QCP described as the strongest weekly intake since October 2025. For this week, the firm said markets are watching three macro variables: PCE inflation data, Nvidia earnings as a signal for the AI investment cycle, and Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s first keynote at Jackson Hole as a signal for the monetary policy framework.

QCP Capital said Bitcoin has bounced from a low near $62,500 earlier this week to trade around $64,000. The more striking aspect is the pressure the market absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC worth roughly $105 million, and reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have climbed to about $110 million. Neither triggered a sustained breakdown. Options markets stayed calm, with front-end implied volatility near the low end of its recent range and downside skew easing. Macro data points were mixed — US manufacturing strengthened in July while labor indicators softened, with JOLTS job openings falling to 7.36 million and ADP private payrolls adding just 44,000. All eyes are on today's US jobs report. Brent crude pushed back above $83 on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty, and Japan remains a liquidity variable as the BOJ still holds roughly half of outstanding JGBs after joint intervention. QCP's takeaway: resilience is improving, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timeline for US digital-asset legislation are the core variables to watch.

QCP Capital said a rare joint foreign-exchange intervention by the United States and Japan last Friday has pushed the yen, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields and cross-border funding conditions back into focus for crypto traders. According to QCP, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York bought yen on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, marking the first coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention since 2011 and the first joint action specifically aimed at supporting the yen since 1998. The firm said the move has also redirected market attention toward the long end of the Treasury curve, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reaching about 5.27%, the highest level since 2007, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate held near 2.28%. QCP added that the discussion has broadened beyond inflation to Treasury issuance, investor demand and cross-border capital flows. For crypto, a sharp yen rebound could force the unwinding of yen-funded trades and spill over into risk assets including BTC and ETH. If the yen stabilizes instead, that could reduce the need for more intervention and ease liquidity pressure in the Treasury market. QCP said the intervention does not offer a clear directional signal for digital assets, but it does show that USD/JPY, Japanese funding conditions and long-term Treasury yields are becoming important inputs for BTC and ETH liquidity.