Treasury yields

PIMCO

2026-09-30 18:33:50

PIMCO’s ZROZ falls to a record low as long-dated Treasury principal exposure loses appeal

PIMCO’s ZROZ, an exchange-traded fund tied to the principal repayment value of long-dated US Treasuries, fell to an all-time low of $53.73, according to Protos. The fund is down 16% this year, 21% over the past 12 months, 63% over five years, and 73% from its March 2020 peak. Protos said the decline reflects the collapse in the present value of long-term Treasury principal repayments rather than any active management error, because ZROZ passively tracks a US Treasury Principal STRIPS Index covering 25- to 30-year maturities. STRIPS do not pay interest and are typically priced at a discount, even though repayment is backed by the US government. The report noted that higher yields on conventional Treasuries have made a principal-only product less attractive, citing a 5.64% annual yield on current 30-year Treasuries. Protos also said that, excluding dividends, buyers at any point since the ETF’s 2009 inception would be underwater, and that even after accounting for distributions, an investor would have needed to buy before September 2011 to show a profit.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-30 10:05:00

Bitcoin Holds Near $82,000 as PCE and Jobs Data Set the Tone for Q4

Bitcoin is hovering around $83,000 after pulling back from a Sept. 21 high above $87,400, with traders treating the $82,000-$83,000 area as the market’s near-term line in the sand. In a market note published jointly by PANews and BIT, the latest pressure on BTC was tied to higher long-dated U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield around 5.26% and the 30-year yield briefly above 5.60%. The report said that move has weighed on the valuation case for bitcoin, tech stocks and gold alike. On the technical side, BTC has posted gains for three straight months and rose about 6% in September, but it remains capped by its 15-month moving average near $85,000. Options traders are still building upside exposure above $90,000, especially at the $95,000 and $100,000 strikes. At the same time, on-chain and derivatives data show softer demand: CryptoQuant’s bull score is close to 90, yet spot demand fell by about 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, while speculative futures demand dropped from roughly 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29. The report also pointed to upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data and nonfarm payrolls as the next key catalysts. A hotter inflation print could force BTC back toward $82,000 or even $80,000, while softer data could reopen the path toward $85,000-$87,000 and possibly $90,000.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-30 15:50:25

Bitcoin Rises After Softer PCE Data, but Treasury Yields Keep Pressure on Risk Assets

Bitcoin climbed after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, briefly pushing above $85,000 before giving back part of the move. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core PCE increased 0.2% on the month and 3.0% annually. All four readings were below economist forecasts cited by Decrypt. The data shifted rate expectations for October. CME FedWatch showed a 62% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged and a 37% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. Even so, the broader macro backdrop remained tense: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached about 5.25%, its highest level since 2002, while the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all slipped. Brent crude also stayed elevated after briefly topping $100 earlier in the week. Decrypt also pointed to cautious positioning on Myriad, the prediction market built by its parent company Dastan. Traders assigned only 7% odds that Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before 2027, using Binance’s previous record of $126,199.63 as the target. On the chart, trend and momentum indicators still leaned bullish, but Bitcoin remained capped below the $85,599 area that has limited price action throughout the week.

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U.S. data

2026-09-30 12:37:43

U.S. Treasury 2Y-10Y Yield Curve Steepens to +37.2 Basis Points After Data Release

According to ChainCatcher, the U.S. Treasury yield curve between the 2-year and 10-year notes steepened after the release of U.S. data, with the latest reading at +37.2 basis points. The brief did not specify which economic data was released, nor did it provide additional market context, timing beyond the release, or related asset moves. The update was published as a 7x24 news flash.

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Bitunix

2026-09-30 06:26:52

Bitunix analyst says crowded Treasury shorts leave rates vulnerable to reversal on inflation and jobs data

Pressure in the U.S. Treasury market is still building, according to a market note cited by BlockBeats on Sept. 30, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising above 5.61%, its highest level since 2002, and the 10-year yield nearing levels last seen in 2007. The report said higher energy prices, heavy corporate bond issuance, and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have all pushed up long-end funding costs. At the same time, short positions in 5-year and 10-year Treasury futures have continued to accumulate, creating what the analyst described as a new asymmetric risk. If upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data or U.S. nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, a concentrated short-covering move could drive yields sharply lower. The report also pointed to shifts in Treasury market demand. Hedge funds now hold $2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, about 7% of marketable debt, a record high. Those positions can add liquidity through cash-futures basis trades, but they also rely heavily on short-term repo funding and leverage. In a volatile rate environment, tighter financing conditions or higher margin requirements could trigger deleveraging and forced selling. JPMorgan also said Middle East crude transport volumes have recovered to about 98% of pre-conflict levels, while refined product flows are only back to 58%.

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Polymarket

2026-09-30 05:24:19

Polymarket odds of 30-year Treasury yield hitting 6% before 2027 fall to 25%

PPP’s prediction market tracker shows Polymarket pricing a 25% chance that the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield will reach 6% before 2027, down 25% over the past 24 hours. The contract resolves to Yes if the 30-year yield reaches or exceeds 6% on any day from Sept. 3, 2026 through Dec. 31, 2026. It resolves to No otherwise. Settlement is based solely on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, specifically the 30 Yr field. If the target level is reached, the market can settle early. If no qualifying data is published by Jan. 14, 2027 at 23:59 ET, and the Dec. 31 reading is still unavailable, the contract resolves to No. The update was cited by Odaily from PPP’s monitoring of the market.

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Goldman Sachs

2026-09-30 04:09:30

Goldman Sachs says S&P 500 market breadth has fallen to dot-com era lows, but weak breadth does not guarantee a sell-off

Goldman Sachs says internal divergence within the S&P 500 has returned to levels last seen during the dot-com bubble, even as the index itself sits less than 2% below its record high. The bank’s measure shows the median constituent is about 16% below its own 52-week high, highlighting how a small group of strong AI-linked megacaps has carried the benchmark while more rate-sensitive stocks have lagged. Still, the historical record does not point to an automatic drawdown. Backtest data covering 13 cases from 1998 to 2024, where the S&P 500 traded near highs despite weak breadth, showed average forward returns of +1.5% after one month, +0.5% after three months, +5.1% after six months, and +10.9% after 12 months. Goldman also noted a separate historical pattern: since 1980, sharp breadth contractions were followed by an average 10% drawdown within the next year, though that drawdown measure differs from end-period returns. The report argues the recent split looks more like a rates shock than a pure AI concentration story. From Aug. 13 to Sept. 25, the S&P 500 slipped 0.7%, while the S&P 400 and S&P 600 fell 6.8% and 7.5%. Over the same period, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.64% to 5.18%, then reached 5.24% on Sept. 29, its highest level since June 2007.

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Treasury Yiel

2026-09-30 04:10:04

MSX says surging Treasury yields have not broken the resilience in U.S. stocks

MSX Research said in its Sept. 29 daily market note that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.26%, touching 5.293% intraday, the highest level since 2007, while the 30-year yield reached an intraday high of 5.6206%, the highest since 2002. Over the past month, 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbed by about 50, 47 and 32 basis points, respectively, as markets raised required returns on long-duration dollar assets. MSX linked the move to higher energy-driven inflation risks, continued economic resilience in the U.S., stronger capital demand from AI and data center buildouts, and larger Treasury supply. Despite the rate move, the report said U.S. equities did not see heavy selling. On Sept. 29, the S&P 500 fell 0.17% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.08%, while both indexes remained up 12.1% and 15.3% for the year. Citing Deutsche Bank, MSX noted that most of the recent rise in 5-year nominal yields came from real yields rather than inflation expectations. The firm argued that the market is shifting from a low-rate valuation regime to one in which earnings growth, capital returns and investment efficiency matter more, especially in AI-related spending.

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