US Inflation

US inflation

2026-08-27 02:17:12

US July PCE Holds at 3.7% as Warsh Speech Nears and Rate-Hike Odds Rise

Fresh US inflation data did not show a renewed surge, but it also failed to deliver the cooling many economists had expected — and that was enough to shift rate expectations higher ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. The Commerce Department reported that the July personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, unchanged from June and above the 3.6% forecast in a Reuters survey. Core PCE also held steady year over year at 3.3%, while the monthly readings for both headline and core inflation came in firmer than expected. Markets reacted quickly. Fed funds futures moved to price roughly a 44% chance of a September rate increase, up from about 36% before the release, while traders fully priced in one additional hike by year-end. At the same time, inflation-adjusted consumer spending was flat in July, highlighting a cooling household sector even as other parts of the economy remained resilient. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised to an annualized 1.5%, but the internals told a more complicated story: consumer spending, business investment excluding housing, and final sales to private domestic purchasers all pointed to solid underlying demand. That leaves Warsh facing a difficult message in Jackson Hole, with inflation still above target, growth sending mixed signals, and price pressures increasingly central to the political debate ahead of the midterm elections.

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Morgan Stanle

2026-08-26 14:33:47

Morgan Stanley says latest PCE report did not ease expectations for a Fed rate hike

The latest U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year, with both readings matching expectations. Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said the inflation print came in with a mild upside surprise and arrived alongside relatively strong economic performance, a combination she said neither investors nor the Federal Reserve would welcome. Still, Zentner added that the data was not enough to shift the balance of decision-making for the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting. The report was cited by Odaily, which attributed the comments to Yahoo Finance.

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US inflation

2026-08-26 12:49:27

US July PCE inflation holds at 3.7% as Q2 GDP growth stays at 1.5%

US inflation showed little relief in July, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — rising 3.7% year over year, unchanged from June and above analysts’ 3.6% forecast, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The reading marked the 65th straight month that inflation has remained clearly above the Fed’s 2% target. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index rose 0.2% in July, also topping economists’ expectations, after falling 0.1% in June, which had been the lowest monthly reading since April 2020. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also left second-quarter real GDP growth unchanged, with the annualized expansion rate holding at 1.5%. BlockBeats, citing Jin10, said the recent disinflation trend has stalled after inflation moved higher, and that could intensify internal debate at the Federal Reserve over whether to raise rates again or keep them unchanged. The report also noted that trade talks between the US and Canada broke down on Friday, potentially setting up another round of tariff-driven inflation pressure.

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US inflation

2026-08-26 07:53:29

US July Core PCE due tonight as September rate hike odds rise

The US Commerce Department is set to release the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index at 20:30 Beijing time on August 26, a data point the market is watching closely ahead of the Jackson Hole gathering. Expectations point to headline PCE rising 0.1% month over month, while the annual pace is seen easing to 3.6% from 3.7% in June. Core PCE is projected to increase 0.2% on the month, up from 0.1% previously, with the yearly rate holding at 3.3%. That would mark the 65th straight month above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. According to BlockBeats, traders are also focused on several possible drivers behind core inflation, including rising prices across the AI supply chain, higher portfolio management fees linked to elevated stock market valuations, and increased energy costs tied to tensions in the Middle East. Goldman Sachs said equity valuation effects alone may have contributed about 0.11 percentage points to July core PCE on a monthly basis. The market is also preparing for a broad methodology revision from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the end of September, which may affect categories such as computer hardware, stock portfolio management, and legal services, with possible historical revisions adding complexity to inflation analysis. CME FedWatch currently shows a 59.9% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September and a 40.1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-15 03:41:57

Cooling U.S. inflation, AI spending and Middle East tensions shaped this week’s market moves

Global markets spent the week trading around four linked themes: softer U.S. inflation data, a reduced expectation of further Federal Reserve tightening, rising geopolitical strain in the Middle East, and continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% year over year, core CPI increased 2.5%, and PPI slowed to 4.7%, prompting investors to cut expectations for a September rate hike. Even so, the long end of the Treasury market stayed under pressure, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 5.22%, its highest level since 2001, as deficit concerns kept long-term borrowing costs elevated. At the same time, AI remained the market’s main capital story. Nvidia, together with BlackRock, Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, is seeking to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI data center construction. In Asia, South Korea’s KOSPI rebounded nearly 22% from its late-July low, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix on stronger AI server and HBM demand. Meanwhile, remarks by Donald Trump on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s response, and the deployment of the USS Washington added another layer of risk to the macro backdrop.

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US inflation

2026-08-14 04:32:57

Cooling CPI and PPI lift Wall Street, but long-dated Treasuries and drone tariffs keep pressure in view

U.S. equities ended higher after softer inflation data helped push the S&P 500 to another record close, with the Nasdaq and Dow also advancing. July producer prices cooled to 4.7% year over year from 5.5% in June, while the market lifted the odds of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in September to around 65%. Even so, the long end of the Treasury market sent a different signal: the 30-year bond auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, and indirect bidding weakened, pointing to growing concern over fiscal supply and term premium. Sector leadership was narrow. SanDisk surged after issuing aggressive long-term targets at its 2026 investor day, lifting Western Digital, SK Hynix, Seagate, Micron and the Roundhill storage ETF. Workday also jumped on a Reuters report that Silver Lake had held acquisition talks for months. In contrast, optical networking names and parts of the AI hardware trade reversed lower, while Cisco fell despite record quarterly revenue as investors focused on margin concerns. Oil prices retreated after both the IEA and OPEC lowered demand expectations, and Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing 10% to 100% tariffs on imported drones and related parts on national security grounds.

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Goldman Sachs

2026-08-12 16:14:29

Goldman Sachs Sees July Core PCE Up 0.23% MoM, Fed on Hold Through Year-End

Goldman Sachs expects July core PCE inflation to rise 0.23% month over month, a level it says is slightly above both core CPI and market consensus, according to a BlockBeats report published on August 13. The forecast arrives as market attention pivots to the July core PCE data scheduled for release on August 26, following the latest CPI report. Within the details, Goldman attributes part of the projected increase to portfolio management fees, which it estimates will add 8 basis points, reflecting second-quarter equity market performance. The bank also cautioned that an upcoming change in methodology could introduce volatility into PCE readings and lower the annual core inflation rate. Looking further ahead, Goldman expects August core inflation to run near 0.2%. The firm believes the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at current levels through the end of the year. Taken together, the projections offer a two-month read on core inflation across July and August.

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US Inflation

2026-08-12 12:36:07

US July Core Inflation Cools, Easing Pressure on Fed Rate Hikes

According to Jinshi, US core inflation was mild in July, which likely eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released updated figures on Wednesday. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the core consumer price index rose 0.2% month over month. Compared with a year earlier, the core index gained 2.5%, matching the slowest annual rate since March 2021. The core CPI is a gauge closely monitored for underlying price pressures. For the broader CPI, the monthly increase was 0.1% and the yearly increase was 3.4%. These numbers are among the latest US inflation readings. The July core result could be seen as reducing the need for further rate increases, as Jinshi suggested, though the report carried no explicit policy comments from the Federal Reserve. Investors and analysts may interpret the data in different ways, but the reported inflation path remains moderate.

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