US Inflation

Goldman Sachs

2026-08-11 09:33:11

Goldman Sachs sees softer July CPI, but says rebound in oil may keep markets on edge

Goldman Sachs’ economics team said it expects U.S. July inflation data to come in slightly below market forecasts, with core CPI seen rising 0.19% month over month versus a 0.2% consensus estimate, and 2.47% year over year versus 2.5% expected. Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.05% from the previous month, also below the 0.1% consensus, mainly reflecting the earlier pullback in energy prices. Even so, the bank said inflation risks have not fully faded. Goldman said its forecast is consistent with a 0.26% monthly increase in core PCE for July, with portfolio management and related categories likely contributing meaningfully. Looking ahead, the bank expects monthly core CPI gains to stay around 0.2% in the coming months, while housing inflation continues to cool, tariff-related price pressures ease, and earlier pressure from airline fuel costs on ticket prices fades. The U.S. July CPI report is due at 20:30 Beijing time on Aug. 12. Ahead of the release, the 10-year Treasury yield moved back near 4.70%, while oil rose above $87. Goldman said inflation risks would tilt higher if oil market disruptions and rising crude prices last longer than expected.

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Academy Secur

2026-08-10 03:39:22

Academy Securities says the U.S. looks more like it has a high-price problem than a new inflation spiral

Academy Securities macro strategist Peter Tchir argued in a Bloomberg analysis that the main issue facing U.S. households may no longer be prices accelerating rapidly, but rather that prices which already rose have not come back down. He compared Truflation’s real-time inflation gauge with official Consumer Price Index and core Personal Consumption Expenditures data and said the relationship has flipped from the pattern seen in 2021 and 2022. Back then, Truflation ran above official readings; now, it is running below them. Tchir said that shift raises a policy question for the Federal Reserve. If policymakers continue to rely heavily on lagging measures such as CPI and core PCE, they could end up overstating the price pressure currently being felt in the economy. He did not say official inflation data are inaccurate. Federal Reserve data released in July still showed PCE up 4.1% year over year through May, with core PCE at 3.4%. His point was narrower: the debate is whether policy should focus more on current price momentum or on the delayed statistical impact of earlier price increases that remains embedded in official gauges. In Tchir’s view, if real-time measures better capture present conditions, then market pricing for additional rate hikes may be more hawkish than warranted.

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Bitcoin

2026-07-24 08:35:17

Bitcoin Drops to $58,035 as US PCE Data Hits Risk Assets

Bitcoin fell to $58,035 after May US PCE inflation data came in hotter than hoped, pressuring risk assets and triggering more than $600 million in crypto liquidations within one hour.

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US inflation

2026-07-24 01:45:16

US March CPI Hits 3.3% YoY; Bitcoin Breaches $72K After Data Release

US March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, driven by surging energy costs; core CPI edged up 2.6%, slightly below forecasts. Bitcoin jumped to $72,780 as traders priced in 98.4% odds of no Fed rate cut in April.

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Bitcoin

2026-07-24 01:35:16

Bitcoin Enters Deep Bear-Market Valuation Zone as Bottoming Process Remains Unclear

Bitcoin has fallen into the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range near the 200-week average, while sentiment has sunk to extreme fear. Analysts say that does not guarantee an immediate bottom.

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Boston Fed

2026-07-23 21:25:15

Boston Fed Says Oil Shocks No Longer Crush U.S. Jobs, but Inflation Stays Sticky

A new Boston Fed study says the U.S. economy is far less vulnerable to oil shocks on employment, while inflation still gets a meaningful lift. The finding lowers the odds of a 1970s-style stagflation replay but points to more persistent price pressure.

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US inflation

2026-07-23 15:45:15

US Inflation Comes in Below Forecast as Ceasefire Talks Ease Pressure on Crypto Markets

US inflation and core inflation both came in slightly below expectations, offering short-term relief to crypto markets as renewed ceasefire talks helped calm war-driven energy and inflation concerns.

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PPI

2026-07-23 14:20:15

US May PPI Surges 6.5% to 3-Year High, Rekindling Fed Rate Hike Fears

The US Producer Price Index for May 2026 jumped 6.5% year-on-year, the largest gain since November 2022, driven by surging energy costs. Core PPI also hit a 4-year high, fueling expectations of a Fed rate hike.

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