Value Investing

Crypto Market

2026-10-13 05:02:54

Zeneca says crypto is moving past spray-and-pray toward a value-investing playbook

MarsBit has published a long-form piece by Zeneca arguing that crypto’s old "spray-and-pray" approach is breaking down. Using data from the 2018, 2021 and 2024-2026 cycles, he says median returns among top-100 tokens have deteriorated sharply, while the number of assets that can beat Bitcoin has narrowed. In his example, a $10,000 equal-weight basket of the top 100 tokens bought near the FTX-era bottom on Nov. 20, 2022 and held until the market-cap peak on Oct. 6, 2025 would have grown to about $19,400, versus roughly $76,600 for a Bitcoin-only position. He also argues that capital is increasingly concentrating in a small set of tokens tied to real revenue, buybacks and burns, while thousands of new tokens compete for the same pool of money. The article then lays out a framework inspired by Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett: focus on a small number of projects with real businesses, track how cash moves from customers into the token, compare market value with annual buyback spending, watch unlock schedules, and pay up for growth only when the assumptions embedded in price still look reasonable. Zeneca treats ZEC as an exception, framing it as a value-storage bet rather than a cash-flow token.

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Crypto Market

2026-10-13 05:01:05

Zeneca says crypto is leaving the spray-and-pray era as a handful of quality tokens pull ahead

Crypto investor and writer Zeneca argues that the market has moved away from the old "buy everything and wait" playbook and into a phase where only a small group of stronger assets consistently outperform. Using three sets of cycle data, he says the median return for the top 100 tokens from the post-FTX low to the market-cap peak on Oct. 6, 2025 was only 0.99x, while a simple Bitcoin position would have turned the same $10,000 into about $76,600. He also points to a sharp rise in token buybacks and burns, from roughly $190 million in the year through October 2021 to about $1.85 billion in the year through October 2026, as evidence that parts of crypto are starting to look more like businesses that can be weighed on cash flow rather than pure narrative. In his framework, investors should focus on whether a protocol earns real customer revenue, how much of that value actually reaches the token, where repurchased tokens go, whether unlocks offset buybacks, and whether growth is real or already priced in. Zeneca says his own plan for the next bull market is to hold a small number of tokens backed by real businesses, plus ZEC as a value-storage exception.

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Li Lu

2026-10-13 01:24:03

Li Lu on AI, value investing, and why fast change makes long-term compounding matter more

Li Lu, founder of Himalaya Capital, used a wide-ranging talk at Columbia Business School’s 36th Graham & Dodd Annual Breakfast to connect value investing, generative AI, market structure, global economic integration, and what he called the logic of compounding in life. His core point was simple: the faster the world changes, the more important it becomes to separate short-lived narratives from things that can compound across cycles, including knowledge, trust, judgment, and the discipline not to lose what you already have. Li restated six basic principles of value investing, from treating stocks as ownership in a business to respecting the limits of one’s circle of competence and focusing on global purchasing power rather than static stores of wealth. He also drew a sharp line between investing, arbitrage, speculation, and brokerage, repeating Warren Buffett’s image of the stock market as “a church with a casino attached.” On AI, Li described generative AI as a highly useful but highly dangerous technology. He rejected the idea that society would ultimately accept a machine intelligence standing above humanity, and argued that AI must remain a tool with humans kept in the loop. He also said AI’s economics differ from earlier technologies because it carries ongoing marginal costs, making capital discipline and profitability impossible to ignore. In markets, he said AI enthusiasm can produce extreme pricing and deep dispersion, but long-term returns still gravitate back toward value creation and rationality.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-25 01:38:08

Why Bill Miller Put More Than Half of His Personal Wealth Into Bitcoin

Hash Global Research revisits the investment logic Bill Miller used to justify a large personal allocation to Bitcoin. Miller is best known for beating the S&P 500 for 15 straight years while running Legg Mason Value Trust, yet he later placed more than half of his personal wealth in BTC, a move that looked at odds with classic value investing. The article argues that Miller never treated value as a narrow screen based on cash flow, low multiples, or conventional balance-sheet analysis. Instead, he focused on what an asset can do, how that function may matter under different future states, and whether the market has fully priced that possibility. The piece traces that framework through three ideas. First is Miller’s “three umpires” story, which he used to show that value depends in part on how investors define reality and usefulness. Second is his earlier investment in Amazon, where he looked past near-term valuation and focused on future cash-flow potential if the business model worked. Third is his comparison of Bitcoin to insurance: an asset that may not generate cash flow but can still carry value if it changes outcomes during financial stress. The article says Miller’s path to Bitcoin did not mark a break from value investing. In his view, it was an extension of it.

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Apple

2026-09-14 09:57:19

Apple foldable launch revives discussion over Duan Yongping’s long-term investment case

A Foresight article uses Apple’s newly launched foldable phone as a way to revisit investor Duan Yongping’s long-running thesis on the company. The piece argues that Apple’s edge does not mainly come from technical barriers that rivals cannot copy, but from its unusually deep focus on user experience, product discipline, and execution. Features highlighted in the article include an almost invisible crease, split-screen support, redesigned interface elements, and a lens effect shown when the phone folds. The author notes that some of these ideas may be reproducible by other handset makers, and that online claims about similar effects appearing on Samsung foldables remain unverified. Even so, the article says Apple’s strength lies in shipping polished experiences before others do. It also points to claims that the foldable design had been in the works for six years, tying that secrecy and persistence back to what Duan has repeatedly described as Apple’s moat. The piece then links that view to Duan’s recent remark on timing: whether a stock is “too late” to buy should be judged by future earnings power, not by how long the company has been listed or how much the share price has risen in the past.

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investment st

2026-08-04 16:57:46

Why holding on may be harder than finding the right investment

Foresight published an opinion piece built around two lines drawn from an early interview with Lin Yuan: “Use a fully invested position to guard against missing out, and use stock selection to guard against declines.” The article argues that the hardest part of investing is often not identifying an opportunity, but staying in position long enough to catch the small window when returns are actually made. According to the piece, a given asset may spend only 5% or less of its life in a true sharp rally, while 90% or more of the time it either moves sideways or falls. If an investor misses that brief stretch, and the asset does not pay cash dividends, the most meaningful portion of the return may be gone. The author says that for investors who do not rely on technical analysis, the practical answer is not repeated timing attempts but staying invested. The article also reframes Lin Yuan’s “fully invested” idea as holding only money one can afford to lose and building exposure gradually through a fixed investment plan. On drawdowns, it says the key defense is choosing a valuable asset before buying rather than trying to sell on a perceived decline. The piece cites Buffett, Munger and Duan Yongping on tolerating 50% drops, and ends with a standard disclaimer that the text is not investment advice.

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Seth Klarman

2026-07-22 13:10:13

Legendary Investor Seth Klarman Warns AI Bubble: Baupost Rejects OpenAI and Anthropic, Targets 'AI Agnostic' Firms

Seth Klarman, dubbed the 'Warren Buffett of Boston', warns AI market valuations are 'extremely stretched'. His Baupost Group refuses to invest in OpenAI or Anthropic, instead seeking mispriced 'AI agnostic' assets.

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Warren Buffet

2026-07-15 17:06:29

Buffett criticizes speculative trading, says he personally drove Berkshire’s Google investment

Warren Buffett used a recent interview to weigh in on market speculation, Berkshire Hathaway’s position in Google, and the appointment of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Buffett said today’s market is being driven more by speculative trading than by long-term investing, arguing that such an environment makes genuine value harder to find. He repeated his view that single-day options trading amounts to gambling and said meaningful opportunities are rare, often requiring years of patience and discipline. Buffett also said Berkshire’s recent large investment in Google was pushed by him personally rather than by CEO successor Greg Abel, though he added that the two remain aligned on decision-making and that Abel is the final decision-maker. Berkshire has continued increasing its Google stake since the third quarter of 2025 and earlier this year participated in a $10 billion private placement. Buffett said he made a mistake by not investing in Google sooner, even though he had already seen the strength of its advertising business through Geico in 2018. On monetary policy, Buffett described Warsh as “a pretty good option,” saying he expects the Fed chair to do his best to pursue the central bank’s 2% inflation target while maintaining maximum employment.

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