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Bitcoin
2026-09-06 05:52:19

Murphy says BTC’s latest rally looks more like a bull-market impulse, with whales still accumulating

On-chain analyst Murphy said Bitcoin’s latest advance stands out from earlier rebounds this year because large holders did not use the move to distribute into strength. In an analysis published on Sept. 6, Murphy pointed to the BTC Accumulation Trend Score, a metric used to track whether whales on-chain have been net accumulating or net reducing positions over the past 30 days. He said readings near 1, shown as a black line on the chart, generally indicate accumulation by entities holding thousands or even tens of thousands of BTC, while readings near 0, shown in yellow, can signal either distribution or inactivity. Murphy compared the current move with Bitcoin’s push to $97,000 in January and $82,000 in May, when the chart stayed yellow, suggesting that large holders were net selling as price bounced. He described that setup as a standard bear-market rebound driven by short covering and short-term capital, with whales selling into strength. By contrast, during the latest move from $60,000 to $80,000, the line turned black, indicating net whale buying over the past month. Murphy said this is the first of the three rebounds in which price rose while large holders also increased exposure. He cautioned that accumulation alone does not confirm a bottom or a trend reversal, but said the structure of the rally appears healthier and closer to what is usually seen in a bull market’s main advancing phase.

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Murphy says BTC’s latest rally looks more like a bull-market impulse, with whales still accumulating
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Bitcoin
2026-09-01 23:34:47

Bitcoin Rebound Sparks Bear-Market Debate as Strategy, Bonds and AI Enter the Frame

Wu Blockchain’s latest podcast centered on a simple question with no simple answer: after Bitcoin rebounded roughly 40% from a June low of about $58,000 to above $81,000, is the bear market already over? Didier called the move an early-bull-market signal, pointing to Bitcoin holding above its 200-day moving average, widespread underweight positioning and a crowded short side. Griffin Ardern said the rally looks more like a late-bear-market squeeze, and that a real bull market still depends on clearer signals from dollar liquidity, fiscal policy and the U.S. Treasury market. The discussion moved quickly into the mechanics behind the rally. Both guests tied the latest move to low positioning, short covering and changing expectations around U.S. fiscal credibility. Griffin argued that recent price action fits a short squeeze in a thin market, while Didier said the broader setup favors risk assets because investors are still underexposed. They also dug into MicroStrategy’s balance sheet, where Didier said STRC is a perpetual preferred stock rather than traditional debt, and that the company is building cash for convertible note maturities. Griffin’s view was broader: Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a macro asset in its own right, regardless of what happens to the company. The episode closed with a debate over AI and crypto capital flows. Didier said AI trade crowds are getting dense and may start looking for easier trades, including crypto. Griffin drew a distinction between technology talent and financial infrastructure, saying AI has pulled some developers away, but crypto continues to mature in payments, trading, compliance and risk control.

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