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a16z says tech has become the market’s “everything cycle” as AI spending pushes hardware and infrastructure back to center stage
New York Times: Meta labeled AI data centers as experiments to cut tax bills
Amazon to invest more than $1 billion in U.S. data center communities over five years
Policy Regula
2026-10-03 13:26:00

AI Debt Boom Is Colliding With Long-Term Treasuries, and Success May Still Bring Heavier Taxes

U.S. long-dated Treasuries sold off sharply on Sept. 24, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.48%, the highest level in two decades, and the 10-year yield moving above 5.2%, a post-financial-crisis high. The article argues that large deficits, high oil prices and renewed Federal Reserve tightening remain part of the backdrop, but a newer force has emerged on the demand side: major AI-focused tech companies issuing massive amounts of long-term debt to fund data center buildouts. According to the piece, the five largest hyperscale cloud companies have issued nearly $230 billion in bonds this year as of August, more than double last year’s total, with a large share concentrated in 20-, 30- and 40-year maturities. Examples cited include Meta’s $30 billion 40-year bond sale, another $25 billion deal from Meta in April, Alphabet’s 100-year sterling bond, and Amazon’s $54 billion raise in March. The argument is that these issuers are far less sensitive to borrowing costs because they expect AI returns to outweigh interest expense, drawing long-term capital away from U.S. Treasuries. The article also says AI could deepen Washington’s fiscal strain even if the technology delivers strong growth. It points to lower labor income, weaker payroll-linked tax receipts, and expanded capital-expense deductions under the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." It cites Microsoft’s tax payable falling from $14.1 billion to $2.5 billion and notes that U.S. corporate tax receipts dropped 25% in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, while the federal deficit reached $2 trillion.

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AI Debt Boom Is Colliding With Long-Term Treasuries, and Success May Still Bring Heavier Taxes
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