Arthur Hayes says a 5% US 10-year yield is the trigger for more dollar liquidity and a bullish Bitcoin setup
Arthur Hayes argues that the signal for Bitcoin is not a political slogan from Washington but the level of the US 10-year Treasury yield. In his latest piece, Hayes says both former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent end up choosing liquidity-creating measures when the 10-year yield nears 5%, even if their public messaging differs. He revisits late 2023, when Yellen increased Treasury bill issuance and helped pull money out of the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility, and contrasts that with Bessent’s current toolkit, including a larger long-end buyback program and support for broader use of the FIMA facility. Hayes argues that these steps are all aimed at keeping long-term borrowing costs from rising too far. His broader claim is straightforward: when the Treasury and the Fed lean toward yield suppression, dollar liquidity expands, and that tends to lift risk assets, including Bitcoin. Hayes points to the drop in reverse repo balances from about $2.5 trillion to $100 billion by the time Bessent took office on Jan. 20, 2025, and says that liquidity shift helped support both the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin. He adds that if Bessent escalates support as market stress builds, Bitcoin could respond in the same direction again.








