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Deutsche Bank
2026-08-12 05:00:00

Deutsche Bank says markets are pricing in an almost flawless mix of growth, mild Fed hikes and easing oil prices

Deutsche Bank argues that global markets are leaning on a combination that leaves little room for error: resilient growth, limited Federal Reserve tightening, manageable energy disruption and lower oil prices. In a recent report, macro strategist Henry Allen said record highs in U.S. equities and tight credit spreads suggest investors still believe the economy can keep expanding, even as rate markets are only pricing in modest additional tightening. That gap, the bank said, could become difficult to sustain if inflation does not cool as expected or if growth stays stronger for longer. The report also points to a disconnect in energy pricing. Brent crude has fallen back from recent highs, yet the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal operations, no agreement to restore transit has been reached, and infrastructure risks remain visible after the Houthis claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. Deutsche Bank said current forward pricing assumes supply conditions will improve, but that expectation still depends on developments that have not materialized. Its broader warning is that the market’s current setup works only if several favorable conditions arrive together. If strong growth keeps inflation pressure alive, or if energy disruptions persist, investors may need to reprice risk assets, interest rates and inflation expectations at the same time.

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Deutsche Bank says markets are pricing in an almost flawless mix of growth, mild Fed hikes and easing oil prices
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