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Policy Regula
2026-09-09 05:38:04

Oil Nears $100 Again as Strategist Warns Fed Could Repeat a 2008-Style Policy Mistake

Oil prices moving back toward $100 a barrel are reviving concerns about how the Federal Reserve may read inflation pressure tied to energy. On Sept. 9, BlockBeats reported that Wellington Altus chief market strategist James Thorne warned the Fed could repeat a policy error seen before the 2008 financial crisis if it chooses to raise rates during an energy supply shock. His point was that higher energy costs do lift inflation, but they also erode household purchasing power and weigh on growth, making the policy trade-off harder than a simple demand-overheating story. Thorne said tighter financial conditions, if imposed to demonstrate the Fed’s resolve on inflation, could deepen downside risks for the economy instead of containing them cleanly. He drew a parallel with the period before the 2008 crisis, when the Fed paid too much attention to inflation risk from energy prices and underestimated the broader drag from high energy costs. Recent market moves add context. WTI crude has risen more than 20% over the past month, while Brent crude is up more than 18%. At the same time, a New York Fed survey showed a further deterioration in how U.S. consumers view their household finances, with the perceived probability of unemployment rising over the next year climbing to 44.4%, the highest level since April 2020. Investors are now watching U.S. August PPI and CPI data due this week, ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 policy meeting, after five straight decisions to leave rates unchanged.

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