JPMorgan raises server shipment outlook on AI inference demand, while PCs stay under pressure from higher costs
JPMorgan raised its global server shipment growth forecasts for 2026 through 2028, arguing that AI inference, rather than training alone, is becoming the main force supporting the market. The bank lifted its 2026 server shipment growth estimate from 15% to 22% and its 2027 forecast from 8% to 25%, saying enterprises need more inference servers as they put AI models into real-world applications. The report drew a clear contrast with the PC market. JPMorgan said first-half PC demand came in better than expected, but attributed that strength to pre-price-hike inventory loading by brands and replacement demand tied to Windows 10, factors it viewed as front-loading demand rather than signaling a durable recovery. For 2026, the bank expects PC shipments to fall 8%, including a 14% drop in consumer PCs and a 4% decline in commercial PCs. JPMorgan also argued that supply, not demand, is the real bottleneck in servers. It said server demand is running 35% to 40% higher year over year, but shipment growth in 2026 can only reach 22% because of constraints in CPUs, substrates, memory, PCBs, passive components and power devices. The report also highlighted uncertainty around Nvidia’s roadmap and said value creation is shifting toward component suppliers.








