Citrini

Odaily

2026-07-26 09:17:06

Analyst flags ChangXin Memory listing scheduled for tomorrow

Odaily reported that Citrini analyst Jukan posted on X to remind investors to watch ChangXin Memory, which is set to go public tomorrow. The brief update did not include additional details on the listing, pricing, venue, or company plans. The item was presented as a timing reminder for investors rather than a broader market analysis. No further information was disclosed in the source beyond Jukan’s post and the expected listing date.

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Citrini

2026-07-25 12:47:17

Citrini’s Jukan says bearish NAND chatter is overblown, keeps bullish view on storage

Citrini analyst Jukan pushed back on recent bearish notes around NAND and negative headlines tied to QLC pricing talks, arguing that the market has overstated the read-through from those reports. He said SanDisk accepting a price below its initial quote in a long-term agreement with Meta was not surprising, because the company has been one of the most aggressive NAND suppliers in pursuing LTAs and plans to allocate more than 50% of its total shipments to such contracts. In that context, taking an LTA price below the current quarter’s contract level should not be used to conclude that SanDisk cannot redirect all orders to higher-bidding North American customers. Jukan also addressed talk that Chinese module makers failed to sell eSSD products to domestic cloud service providers, saying the issue was that Chinese CSPs can buy directly from YMTC rather than a sign of weak demand. On concerns that hyperscalers are pushing down QLC eSSD pricing and leaving some volume unsold, he said newer cloud players have enough demand to absorb that supply. Jukan ended by saying weak performance in storage stocks tends to amplify negative headlines even when fundamentals have not materially worsened. He reiterated that he remains bullish on storage. He had previously said DRAM contract prices still have about 40% upside through the end of 2027 and that HBM supply remains tight.

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Citrini

2026-07-25 09:12:58

Citrini says Korean chipmakers remain cautious on 3D IC commercialization as CXMT targets custom memory niches

Citrini analyst Jukan, citing a recent industry analysis from ZDNet Korea, said the AI semiconductor race is shifting away from process-node scaling and toward advanced stacking technologies, with 3D IC emerging as a key next-generation approach for vertically integrating logic and memory. He said Samsung Foundry has recently seen a surge in inquiries about 3D IC, with nearly every potential customer asking about the technology. Even so, Jukan argued that 3D IC is fundamentally customized DRAM made to order, which clashes with the core business model of Samsung and SK hynix, both of which are built around standardized products and large-scale volume production. In his view, the two Korean memory makers are likely to keep their work limited to early-stage research and stay cautious about broad commercialization. That hesitation, he said, is creating an opening for niche players. With U.S. semiconductor restrictions making it difficult for China’s CXMT to enter the HBM market, the company is pursuing 3D IC as a differentiated path, focusing on custom memory instead of taking on Korean suppliers directly in commodity DRAM. A Korean semiconductor industry official said China is already ahead in producing multiple 3D DRAM sample chips, and that companies such as CXMT and Winbond may be the ones to establish this market first.

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Citrini

2026-07-18 13:16:22

Citrini says AI demand elasticity could soften the profit hit from a future memory supply ramp

Citrini analyst Jukan said a recent market analysis argues that the pullback in memory-chip stocks reflects more than deleveraging. Investors, the note said, have also started pricing in a 2028 supply expansion scenario. While the industry broadly expects tight supply in high-end memory such as HBM to last through 2027, research firms and sell-side analysts have suggested that aggressive capacity additions by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could begin easing the shortage in 2028. The analysis challenges the usual market template for memory names. Historically, memory stocks have tended to peak about two quarters before memory prices. But the report says markets may start discounting future supply growth well before that. It also argues that the standard bearish case rests on one assumption: that new capacity arrives in a concentrated wave in 2028 and pushes memory prices sharply lower again. Looking back to the 1980s, the note says major memory price collapses were usually driven by rapid supply growth rather than shrinking demand. In the current AI cycle, it argues, demand for compute and memory may be more price-elastic than in past cycles. Citing Zhang and Zhang’s 2026 paper, it says AI token demand has a price elasticity of about 1.42. In a DRAM example, a 30% price drop, 42% volume growth, and a roughly 15% cost decline from process upgrades could leave industry revenue broadly stable and limit profit declines to around 15%.

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Kimi K3

2026-07-17 11:11:01

Citrini analyst says Kimi K3 could squeeze top AI model margins and benefit AI infrastructure plays

Citrini analyst Zephyr commented on the newly released Kimi K3 model on July 17, saying it could compress profit margins for leading AI model companies. In Zephyr’s view, OpenAI’s Sol still holds a pricing edge, while Anthropic’s Opus is under heavier pressure. The analyst also said K3 is positive for cloud service providers, Token-as-a-Service providers, and the broader AI infrastructure segment. Zephyr added that Moonshot is expected to buy large amounts of computing power as demand jumps, a development he said would directly benefit A-share companies tied to AI infrastructure. The remarks were reported by BlockBeats.

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SK Hynix

2026-07-13 00:45:08

Citrini analyst says SK Hynix operating profit seen at KRW 60.4 trillion, 8% below consensus

Citrini analyst jukan said in a post on X that local South Korean brokerages expect SK Hynix to post operating profit of KRW 60.4 trillion. The figure would represent 61% quarter-over-quarter growth and 556% year-over-year growth. Even so, it would still come in 8% below the market consensus estimate of KRW 65 trillion. According to jukan, the shortfall is mainly tied to SK Hynix having a higher share of HBM revenue than its peers, which led to a smaller increase in average selling prices than the broader market average. The comments were cited by Odaily in a market analysis brief.

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Citrini

2026-06-23 06:01:01

Behind Citrini: The 'God of Research' Who Shook Wall Street with a Single Report

Citrini, a research firm with a Substack top ranking, caused massive selloffs in U.S. software stocks with its '2028 Global Intelligence Crisis' report. Founder James van Geelen, a UCLA double-major in biology and psychology, transitioned from healthcare to investing, using second-order thinking and a long-term orientation. This article uncovers his cross-industry legend and Citrini's methodology.

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Citrini

2026-06-22 23:01:14

Unveiling the 'Research God' Behind Citrini: From UCLA Biology & Psychology to Triggering a Stock Market Rout

An in-depth profile of Citrini and its founder James van Geelen. From the February '2028 Global Intelligence Crisis' report that wiped out hundreds of billions in US stock market value, to the April Hormuz Strait field survey, and the precise call on copper foil in AI, Citrini is emerging as a key bridge between crypto and traditional finance.

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