Bitcoin2026-09-08 12:24:47Bitcoin slips below $79,000 despite golden cross as yields, oil and yen strength weigh on risk assetsBitcoin formed a closely watched golden cross on Sept. 8, with its 50-day simple moving average rising above the 200-day line, yet the technical signal failed to lift price action. Instead, BTC dropped below $78,800 on Tuesday according to CoinDesk data, while some market quotes briefly fell to around $78,300. The move left Bitcoin unable to hold the $80,000 level after several attempts over the past two weeks. The report said macro pressure, not chart structure, is driving the short-term market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.8%, and stronger-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls pushed market pricing for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September to about 60%. At the same time, Reuters reported Brent crude rose roughly 1.7% to around $98.66 a barrel, reviving inflation worries ahead of upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data. Another source of pressure is Japan. USD/JPY fell to around 152.89 as the yen climbed to its strongest level in nearly seven months, raising concern over the unwinding of yen carry trades. Reuters said cross-border yen lending had reached about 360 trillion yen as of March, pointing to the size of positions that could be affected.850
Bank of Japan2026-09-08 03:13:32Japan’s July wage growth hits fastest pace since 1997, reinforcing BOJ rate-hike betsJapan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported that nominal wages in July rose 4.7% from a year earlier, the strongest increase since January 1997 and above economists’ 3.8% forecast. Average nominal pay reached ¥436,401, or about $2,800, while real wages, adjusted for inflation and excluding rent, climbed 2.4%, marking a seventh straight month of gains and the biggest rise in roughly five years. Base pay increased 4.1%, the quickest pace since April 1992, and real wages for full-time employees, excluding bonuses, overtime and sampling distortions, rose 2.7%. The figures have strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting. The BOJ’s policy rate is currently 1.0%. At its July 31 meeting, the board voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, with board member Hajime Takata casting the lone dissent in favor of lifting the rate directly to 1.25%. Market pricing now largely reflects a 25-basis-point increase this month, with cumulative tightening of about 75 basis points priced in through April 2027. For crypto investors, the report points to the risk of yen carry-trade unwinds. If BOJ tightening lifts funding costs and strengthens the yen, leveraged positions in U.S. Treasuries, tech stocks and Bitcoin could come under pressure. Because crypto trades around the clock and reacts quickly to liquidity shifts, it is often one of the first areas hit when carry positions are cut.890
Japanese yen2026-09-07 23:47:03Yen hits strongest level since February as stop-loss selling and BOJ rate-hike bets buildThe Japanese yen strengthened to 153.87 against the U.S. dollar by press time, marking its highest level since February, as a break below USD/JPY 155 triggered a wave of stop-loss orders and options-related hedging flows. Bloomberg reported that the move gathered pace after the pair slipped under a level seen by State Street Investment Management as an important support area following earlier intervention episodes. Traders said the break forced options dealers to sell dollars in the spot market, amplifying yen gains in thin holiday trading as U.S. markets were closed. Fresh data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance added to the shift in sentiment. Official foreign exchange reserves fell to $1.208 trillion at the end of August, down $79.6 billion from a month earlier, a decline of about 6.18% and the largest monthly drop on record. The figures reflected Japan’s earlier intervention campaign, during which authorities spent JPY 15.4 trillion between late July and late August to buy yen and sell dollars. At the same time, attention has turned to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, with comments from board member Hajime Takata reinforcing expectations that policy normalization remains in play, including the possibility of a 25-basis-point move.920
Bank of Japan2026-09-07 10:17:09Yen’s 2.5% weekly gain puts BOJ policy path and global carry trades back in focusThe Japanese yen rose about 2.5% over the past week, marking its biggest weekly gain since the late-July U.S.-Japan currency intervention, even as stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls would normally have favored the dollar. The move has been tied to a sharp shift in Bank of Japan rhetoric, rising Japanese government bond yields, and a squeeze on crowded short-yen positions. Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point rate increase at the BOJ’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, which would lift the policy rate to 1.25%. The report argues that the significance of the move goes well beyond foreign exchange. Because the yen has long served as a global funding currency, a stronger yen and higher Japanese yields can force the unwinding of carry trades that financed positions in U.S. equities, Treasuries, and other risk assets. That transmission channel matters most for long-duration, high-valuation AI and technology stocks, which are especially sensitive to liquidity and discount-rate changes. Investors are now focused less on the size of the next BOJ move than on what comes after it. The pace of future tightening, long-end Japanese bond dynamics, CFTC positioning, and any renewed official intervention are all seen as key signals for whether this yen rally develops into a broader global repricing event.1430
USD/JPY2026-09-04 12:52:02USD/JPY Falls to 155.5, Down 0.1% in 24 HoursAccording to Gate data, the USD/JPY pair slipped to 155.5, currently trading at 155.390, with a 24-hour decline of 0.1%.930
JPMorgan2026-09-04 02:31:11JPMorgan warns USD/JPY break below 155 could trigger yen-short unwind and send pair toward 142-146JPMorgan has warned that a break below 155 in USD/JPY could trigger a concentrated unwind of roughly 16 trillion to 17 trillion yen in outstanding short-yen positions, equivalent to about $102.6 billion. According to strategists including Junya Tase, recent price action suggests large yen shorts may not have been fully cleared, raising the risk that selling could accelerate if the pair slips through that level. In that scenario, the bank said USD/JPY could theoretically fall into the 142-146 range. The pair earlier touched 160.39 this week before retreating to around 155.30, while the yen was on track for a roughly 2.7% weekly gain against the dollar, its best showing since July. JPMorgan said the move has been driven by rising expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, speculative short covering, and stronger hedging demand from domestic Japanese investors. Swap markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point BOJ hike this month and see about an 80% chance of another increase in December. Still, JPMorgan said expectations around the BOJ and GPIF portfolio reallocation may be overstretched and that a sharp break below the 155-165 range is not its base case. Japan’s top FX official Atsushi Mimura also said he was "not satisfied" with current yen moves and that Japan stands ready to respond to market volatility. Bank of America is currently short USD/JPY with a target of 149, while TD Securities remains moderately bearish on the dollar for the rest of the year.1020
Japanese yen2026-09-03 23:34:33Yen Jumps Nearly 2% to 155.81 as BOJ Rate Bets, Short Covering Lift CurrencyThe Japanese yen rallied nearly 2% against the U.S. dollar on Sept. 4, climbing to 155.81 and marking its biggest one-day gain since the joint U.S.-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market. The move was driven by rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates at its Sept. 18 policy meeting, with the swap market almost fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike and putting the odds of another increase in December at about 80%. Short covering in speculative yen positions and haven demand from domestic investors added to the momentum. On the U.S. side, softer remarks on inflation from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped restrain expectations for further rate hikes, pushing down dollar rate expectations and narrowing the expected U.S.-Japan yield gap. Japanese authorities remain on alert as well, after deploying a record $96.4 billion over the past month to support the currency. Markets are also watching the period after the September BOJ meeting, which is followed by Japan’s Silver Week holiday, a window seen as sensitive because thinner liquidity could increase the chance of official intervention.1310
Japanese yen2026-09-03 16:00:00Yen strength lifts Bitcoin, but carry trade unwind risk remains in focusBitcoin and gold moved higher as the Japanese yen strengthened sharply and the U.S. dollar weakened broadly, according to a CoinDesk-cited market analysis carried by PANews on Sept. 3. The report said the main driver behind the move was the yen’s influence on the U.S. Dollar Index, a dynamic that challenged the conventional view that a stronger yen automatically signals risk-off trading. CoinDesk said a weaker dollar usually supports dollar-denominated assets such as Bitcoin and tends to ease global financial conditions, which can improve appetite for risk assets. In that context, Bitcoin was quoted at $78,535.67 in the report. At the same time, the analysis warned that a disorderly and rapid rise in the yen could flip the picture. Over the past decade and more, many traders have borrowed low-cost yen to build long positions across stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies. If the yen jumps too far too fast, those yen-funded carry positions could be forced to unwind, leading foreign investors to exit Japanese equities and domestic traders using cheap yen funding to liquidate overseas holdings. That would increase pressure on risk assets.860
