Labor market

Federal Reser

2026-08-07 15:12:32

Fed Survey: Short-Term Inflation Expectations Cool in July as Job Outlook Improves

The New York Fed's latest survey shows consumers' one-year inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% in July from 3.7%. Expectations for three- and five-year inflation held at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. Unemployed workers' perceived probability of finding a job rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. Optimism about higher stock prices a year ahead reached its strongest level since April 2021.

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Nonfarm Payro

2026-08-07 12:30:00

US Nonfarm Payrolls Unexpectedly Drop by 23,000 in July; Jobless Rate Falls to 4.1%

U.S. seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below the 80,000 gain that had been expected. The June figure was revised down as well, from an initial increase of 57,000 to 20,000. The unemployment rate improved to 4.1% last month, better than the 4.2% forecast and down from 4.2% in June. PANews reported the data on August 7, citing Jin10. The publisher also noted the report is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice.

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nonfarm payro

2026-08-07 11:40:15

US July Jobs Report Preview: 80K Expected, ADP Shows Weaker Hiring

The July US nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for release tonight at 20:30, and markets are looking for a rebound in hiring. The median expectation is 80,000 new jobs, above June's 57,000 increase, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 3.5% on the year and 0.3% on the month. ADP private payrolls, a closely watched signal, rose just 44,000 this week, pointing to a softer picture. A Reuters poll puts the consensus at 80,000, and a separate Dow Jones Newswires and Wall Street Journal survey shows an average estimate of 83,000. Goldman Sachs economists caution that July readings often miss market expectations, and prior months' job growth has been subject to sizable revisions. Behind the stable jobless rate, labor force participation has dropped to its lowest level since 2021. The latest private-sector employment data suggests companies are less eager to hire. Labor market resilience now comes more from supply and demand cooling together than from stronger recruitment.

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US payrolls

2026-08-07 08:34:51

U.S. July payrolls due tonight as weak-season pattern collides with higher-for-longer bets

The U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report is due later today, with consensus centered on roughly 80,000 new jobs but forecasts spread across an unusually wide range, from 40,000 to 157,000. Goldman Sachs expects 75,000, while Vanguard sees only 18,000, arguing that spring labor data may have been flattered by weather effects, World Cup-related hiring, and early local government recruitment. ADP private payrolls, which rose just 44,000, have added to downside concerns. A major backdrop for the release is the recent pattern of weak July payroll prints. Goldman said that over the past three years, July job growth has come in an average of 66,000 below the then-prevailing three-month average and 35,000 below consensus, often alongside sizable downward revisions to prior months. At the same time, some indicators still offer support, including low layoff readings, lower jobless claims during the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey window, and signs of recovery in government hiring. Markets are also focused on the unemployment rate, labor-force participation, and wages because of their implications for Federal Reserve policy. A stronger report could reinforce expectations that rates stay high for longer, while a softer print could revive pricing for a gentler easing path.

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US economy

2026-08-05 14:49:40

US July ADP private payrolls rise 44,000, lowest this year as markets await Friday jobs report

U.S. private-sector hiring slowed sharply in July, with ADP reporting payroll growth of 44,000, well below the 65,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg and down from a revised 95,000 in June. The reading marked the weakest monthly gain of the year and the lowest level since January. The report pointed to softer labor demand in parts of the economy, with goods-producing industries shedding 3,000 jobs. At the same time, wage growth stayed firm. Pay for job changers rose 7% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in nearly a year, while wage gains for workers who stayed in their jobs held at 4.4%. ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said hiring patterns are shifting as employers respond to changes in the macroeconomic environment. She also said faster pay growth among job changers suggests supply constraints remain in some parts of the labor market. Attention now turns to Friday’s official U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Bloomberg’s survey showed economists expect July payrolls, including public-sector jobs, to increase by 80,000. Investors are watching whether the government data confirms the slowdown signaled by ADP and what that could mean for expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-05 00:17:29

Fed's Schmid Says Labor Market Seems Roughly Balanced

ChainCatcher relays a report from Jinshi stating that Federal Reserve's Schmid said the labor market appears to be roughly balanced. The brief statement carries no additional detail in the original flash.

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Fidelity

2026-07-31 07:09:57

Fidelity says Fed may wait until December to begin rate hikes, while September remains on the table

Fidelity said the U.S. Federal Reserve is more likely to wait until December before starting a rate-hike cycle, provided inflation and labor market data continue to come in strong. At the same time, the firm said the possibility of a September hike has not been fully ruled out. In its view, economic releases over the next two months, along with geopolitical developments, could rekindle inflation risks and shift the policy outlook again. Fidelity also said the latest decision highlights a policy style associated with the Warsh era: without a clearly defined framework or forward guidance, the Fed is likely to lean more heavily on incoming economic data and changes in financial conditions when making decisions. The remarks point to a data-dependent approach rather than a preset path for rates.

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Federal Reser

2026-07-29 18:58:09

Waller says latest rate decision was not a “pause” and marks the start of a policy shift

Federal Reserve Chair Waller said at a July 30 press conference that he would not describe the latest interest-rate decision as a “pause,” adding that any such interpretation would be the market’s own conclusion rather than the Fed’s framing. He said the decision announced today was “the beginning of the story, not the end,” signaling that policymakers are still working through the broader implications of current economic conditions. Waller said the Federal Reserve is closely watching how various shocks may affect underlying inflation and is assessing whether the scope of those effects is widening. For now, he said, the central bank is conducting a strict review of the economic outlook. On employment, Waller said the U.S. labor market remains in good shape and that the Fed has done “quite well” on the full-employment side of its mandate. He added that the Fed’s dual mandate is not in conflict and that neither objective has been neglected. Looking ahead to the Jackson Hole central banking conference, Waller said he has not yet begun preparing his speech. He said he hopes to discuss major policy issues there and plans to study related questions with his team before the meeting.

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