Lighter

Ogle

2026-10-04 05:55:09

WLFI advisor Ogle on trading discipline, LIT losses, and turning a six-figure wallet into on-chain gains

In episode 69 of the HODLong podcast, WLFI advisor Ogle laid out the thinking behind his trading framework, tracing it from a childhood habit of buying and reselling school supplies to a recent crypto run that, by his account, turned a little more than six figures into $15 million to $20 million in publicly visible gains by autumn. The conversation was not framed as a victory lap. It opened with a loss: Ogle said he lost several million dollars in 10 to 15 minutes after Robinhood’s annual summit failed to mention Lighter, even though he had built his largest position around that possibility. He said his oversized LIT position rested on two equally weighted reasons: Lighter’s founder had ties to Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, and that same founder also sat on the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s innovation advisory committee. When the first part of that thesis broke, he cut the position exactly in half. Across the interview, Ogle returned to a few rules that shape how he trades: get off the train if it is going to the wrong destination, ignore whether a position is up or down and ask whether you would still buy it in cash today, size positions so you can sleep, and keep looking for evidence that disproves your thesis. He also discussed how he screened projects in this cycle, why buyback-and-burn token models mattered to him, why he chose Lighter over Hyperliquid for asymmetric upside, how he viewed LayerZero, Ethena and Pons through the same lens, and why social trading app FOMO made him act in ways he believes made him a worse trader.

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RWA

2026-10-01 04:58:20

Theory Ventures founder says RWA crypto market is growing faster than AI

Theory Ventures founder Tomasz Tunguz said the world’s fastest-growing market is not AI but the crypto market built around on-chain real-world assets, or RWA. In his view, RWA is bringing stocks as well as commodities such as oil and copper onto blockchains, while also taking on much of the public price discovery process when commodity exchanges are closed. Tunguz said stock perpetual contracts are being used to provide pre-listing price signals for companies including Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Cerebras, while also opening access to international users. He cited data showing that Cerebras’ pre-IPO perpetual price was within 1.3% of its Nasdaq opening price. For SpaceX, he said perpetual open interest stood at about $215 million and cumulative pre-listing trading volume reached roughly $2.2 billion. He also pointed to a September 2026 report from Pantera Capital, which said stock perpetuals on Hyperliquid and Lighter recorded $67.8 billion in June trading volume, or 16 times the spot volume of tokenized stocks. Tunguz added that stablecoins have become one of the top 10 buyers of U.S. Treasuries and are being used to settle these tokenized asset trades.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-30 10:11:36

Bitcoin Holds Near $83K as Lighter Slides on Robinhood’s U.S. Perpetual Futures Plan

Bitcoin traded near $83,000 in European hours on Sept. 30, slipping 0.57% since midnight UTC to $83,164, while broader crypto markets showed a split performance. CoinDesk 100 constituents were evenly divided between gainers and losers, and the CoinDesk DeFi Index fell 2.3% over 24 hours, with AAVE dropping 4.4% after the token had surged 11% a day earlier. The move came as traders watched macro signals ahead of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 30-year yield above 5.6%, its highest level since June 2002, while the 10-year yield approached 5.3%, according to CNBC. Traditional risk assets were firmer, with S&P 500 futures up 0.27% and the Stoxx 600 gaining 0.74%. In derivatives, leverage continued to cool. Total liquidations fell to $196 million from $389 million a day earlier, open interest slipped to $147 billion, and trading volume dropped 16.9% to $181 billion, according to CoinGlass. BTC futures open interest fell to 625,000 BTC, the lowest since Jan. 1, even as the coin had rallied from $57,000 in June to above $80,000, pointing to spot demand rather than leverage. Robinhood’s announcement that it will offer crypto perpetual futures to U.S. customers through its own derivatives arm also hit Lighter, whose token fell 17% over 24 hours and 5.6% since midnight UTC.

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Robinhood

2026-09-30 03:30:38

Robinhood taps Bitstamp for U.S. perpetuals, sending Lighter’s LIT down nearly 20%

Robinhood’s latest product announcement hit Lighter’s token hard. At its annual event on Sept. 30 Beijing time, Robinhood said eligible U.S. users will get access to perpetual futures through Bitstamp, the crypto exchange it acquired for $200 million in 2025. The initial lineup includes BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK and HYPE, with leverage of up to 10x for BTC and ETH and up to 3x for the rest. The market reaction was immediate. Lighter’s native token, LIT, fell nearly 20% in short-term trading, giving back part of its earlier gains. The sell-off reflected a reset in expectations rather than confirmed evidence of a breakup. For months, part of LIT’s premium valuation had been tied to the idea that Lighter, as a close Robinhood-linked Perp DEX, could eventually capture Robinhood’s retail flow. Robinhood’s decision to route U.S. perpetuals through Bitstamp instead left that thesis unfulfilled, at least for now. Still, the existing relationship has not publicly been unwound. Robinhood Wallet documentation continues to list Lighter as the underlying venue for perpetual trading, and there is no public indication that the integration has been removed or that the partnership has ended. The bigger constraint may be regulation: the article notes that Lighter does not yet hold the U.S. regulatory approvals needed to run that business domestically, while Bitstamp already provides a ready-made platform for Robinhood’s U.S. rollout.

200

Robinhood

2026-09-29 23:52:48

LIT Drops More Than 14% as Robinhood’s Bitstamp Integration Raises Questions Over Lighter’s Role

Lighter’s token, LIT, fell more than 14% on Sept. 30, according to HTX market data, with the token last quoted at $3.89. The move came as the market reacted to news that Robinhood is integrating Bitstamp and plans to offer crypto perpetual contracts to eligible users in the United States. Robinhood had previously connected to Lighter for its on-chain perpetuals business, but for this U.S. perpetuals rollout it chose to integrate Bitstamp instead of continuing with Lighter. The market appears to have read that decision as a sign that Lighter may not capture the main order flow from Robinhood’s new perpetuals business. That, in turn, led traders to cut expectations for Lighter’s trading volume, fee revenue, and the scale of LIT buybacks and burns, triggering selling pressure in the token.

130

Lighter

2026-09-21 02:59:19

Lighter adds prediction market support in lighter-prover update touching 88 files

Lighter’s development team has pushed a new update to the lighter-prover repository, adding "Binary options support," according to the project’s GitHub page. The commit touched 88 files in total, with 6,329 lines added and 1,214 lines removed. The changes span several parts of the codebase, including trade processing, market data, account positions, settlement results, and zero-knowledge proof circuits. The update points to expanded functionality inside the repository and shows that the team is making changes across both trading logic and proving-related components. No additional rollout timeline or product release details were disclosed in the source material.

350

Lighter

2026-09-21 02:54:11

Lighter code commit hints at prediction market design with whitelist operator model

A recent code commit in decentralized order-book exchange Lighter appears to show early support for binary-outcome markets, pointing to a possible move into prediction markets. The commit, labeled "Binary options support," suggests Lighter’s ZK Circuits may already handle markets where shares trade between 0 and a settlement cap, typically 100, and resolve at either 0 or the cap depending on the outcome. The design shown in the code uses fully collateralized USDC and does not support leverage, which means there is no liquidation or forced-close risk in the mechanism described. The implementation also appears to support continuous settlement rather than only simple yes-or-no outcomes. In practice, that would allow contracts tied to measured real-world values, with payouts settling anywhere between 0 and the cap. The analysis cited an example of a no-liquidation market tied to an IPO valuation range, where returns would be calculated linearly based on where the final pricing lands within a preset band. Separately, the report said Lighter may adopt a "market operator" structure similar to HIP-3, under which whitelisted operators would be allowed to create, manage, and settle markets instead of having every market launched directly by the platform itself.

290

Lighter

2026-09-21 01:21:08

Lighter prover repository shows commit for binary options support

A recent commit in Lighter’s prover codebase points to possible binary options functionality, according to an X post published by user @UngusTrade on Sept. 21. The commit, titled "Binary options support," describes a zero-knowledge circuit intended to support Lighter. Code referenced in the post shows a standard binary-outcome contract design in which each market has a settlement cap, with prediction markets typically set at 100. Shares trade between 0 and that cap, then settle at either 0 or the cap. The implementation is described as fully collateralized in USDC, with no leverage and no liquidation. The circuit also appears to support continuous markets, allowing settlement at any value within a range rather than only yes-or-no outcomes. That would make contracts based on measured values possible. The post also said Lighter may let whitelisted operators create, manage, and settle markets under a deployment model similar to HIP-3. Lighter had not publicly commented on the matter at the time of publication.

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