Coinbase model says AI agent wallets could lift revenue to $50.37 billion in a bull case
Tiger Research said AI agent wallet infrastructure is becoming a strategic battleground for exchanges and stablecoin issuers, even though near-term revenue remains limited. Using Coinbase’s disclosed figures, the report estimated that wallet-related revenue tied to broad AI agent adoption could range from a modest $84 million a year in a conservative case to roughly $50.37 billion in an aggressive case, or about seven times Coinbase’s current total revenue. The spread comes from three variables multiplying together: adoption rate, the number of agents per user, and daily call frequency. The report argues that if machine-to-machine payments scale, traditional card-based payment rails may not fit ultra-small transactions such as $0.001 API calls or even $0.00001 data queries. That is where programmable payment rails and wallets enter the picture. Still, the path is far from clear. The report also flags several unresolved risks, including hallucinations in autonomous purchasing, fraud-detection blocks by card issuers, fragmented protocols such as x402, AP2 and MPP, and the lack of clear KYC and regulatory treatment for AI agents.








