hawkish

Federal Reser

2026-08-29 06:42:22

CICC: Fed Chair Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Aids Policy Credibility

In a note published on Aug. 29, CICC offered its take on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, calling the tone hawkish. Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, said interest rates are still the primary policy tool, and pledged to act "as circumstances warrant." He pointed to economic resilience, stable employment, and easing financial conditions as evidence that policy risks now tilt to the inflation side. He also placed responsibility for the 65-month inflation overshoot on the central bank itself and walked back his July suggestion of letting the market do the Fed's rate-hiking work. CICC believes the speech will help rebuild the Fed's credibility, and markets have already started to price a marginal recovery in policy trust. Over the longer run, Warsh continues to argue that AI could reshape the economy and the policy framework, while pushing for fewer forward-guidance commitments and other reforms. For markets, the hawkish signal raises the odds of a rate hike this year, but CICC cautions that this is not necessarily pure bad news. Liquidity is not the issue today; what markets need is policy discipline and predictability. If inflation is subdued in time, the medium-term outcome could actually be favorable, the brokerage said.

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Federal Reser

2026-08-29 06:53:21

Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Boosts Odds of September Fed Rate Hike

StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said Wosh's speech on Friday evening was viewed as fairly hawkish. In remarks on forward guidance, Wosh said what markets expected him to say — he does not believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. That did not stop speculation that a hike could return to the table. On inflation, Wosh said fighting it remains a clear priority, a point he elaborated at length, while adding that he is confident core inflation is moving toward the Fed's target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than markets expected. During Wosh's Jackson Hole remarks, the market substantially repriced expectations for the Fed's September decision, with the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike jumping from 30% to about 50%. Before the September meeting, one nonfarm payrolls report and one CPI inflation report are still due, along with some secondary data releases. Under the new chair, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have missed expectations by wide margins, any further weakening signal could seriously undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.

1110

Federal Reser

2026-08-05 01:53:46

Five Regional Fed Presidents Back Rate Hikes, Deepening Policy Split

Five of the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents have publicly voiced support for raising interest rates after the July policy meeting, signaling a growing hawkish tilt inside the central bank. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she favored a hike at the latest meeting, calling the current stance "not restrictive enough." Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan said core inflation remains near 2.5% even after stripping out recent shocks, backing tighter policy. Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari argued for gradual tightening while more inflation and employment data arrives, saying "small, consecutive moves" are better than being forced into larger action later. Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid said strong demand and investment mean policy is not yet restrictive enough to hit the 2% target. St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem also backed a hike, warning that recent Treasury selloffs reflect doubts about Fed credibility and that persistent supply shocks are spreading price pressures. In contrast, seven Fed governors, New York Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker have supported holding rates steady, underlining a clear split over the path ahead.

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Kevin Warsh

2026-07-23 08:00:15

New Fed Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Misread as Hawk? Analyst Says He's a 'Pragmatic Conservative'

After Trump tapped Kevin Warsh for Fed chair, markets priced in a hawkish shift, but Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha argues Warsh is closer to a pragmatic conservative who distinguishes inflation sources and favors gradual balance sheet reduction.

620

Federal Reser

2026-07-22 17:05:14

Fed's Waller Turns Hawkish: Supports Dropping Easing Bias, Warns of Possible Rate Hikes

Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a hawkish speech, supporting removal of the 'easing bias' from policy statements and warning that rate hikes could return if inflation expectations become unanchored. He estimated April PCE at 3.8%.

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