Nomura Starts Coverage on CXMT With a RMB 116 Target, Built on Aggressive AI Memory Assumptions
Nomura has initiated coverage on Chinese DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, with a Buy rating and a target price of RMB 116, according to a report discussed in a ChainCatcher article by “The Dream of the Fourth Dimension.” The front page of the report also showed an IPO price of RMB 8.66 and implied upside of 1,239.5%, making it, in the author’s view, the most aggressive target price so far from a foreign institution on the company. The target is based on 20x projected 2028 earnings per share of about RMB 5.8. Nomura anchors that multiple to Micron’s historical forward valuation range, then adds what it sees as an A-share premium using ACM Research Shanghai versus its U.S.-listed parent as a reference. The report also projects a steep jump in revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, gross margin, cash, and return on equity through 2028. Its broader thesis rests on rising memory demand from agentic AI, supply bottlenecks across cleanrooms, tools, materials and engineers, and CXMT’s own capacity ramp, yield improvement, and share gains. The original article, however, argues that the model’s most aggressive assumption is gross margin reaching 83.7% in 2026 and more than 90% by 2028, and suggests the figures are better read as an upside case than a long-term midpoint.








