Bank of America Global Research said in its "Global Memory Tech" report that channel checks point to stronger-than-expected DRAM contract pricing for the third quarter. The report said newly negotiated prices are coming in above prior market expectations, with server DRAM prices rising 20% to 30% quarter over quarter, driven mainly by high-speed LPDDR5. That compares with earlier expectations for gains of no more than 20%. BofA also said spot demand has remained firm, with commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4 prices continuing to rise month over month in July. Near-term orders for higher-priced HBM4 have increased, while the share of lower-priced HBM3E orders has declined. According to the report, DRAM sales covered by long-term supply agreements account for well below 50% of total sales, while non-LTA sales make up about 60% to 70%. Even under long-term agreements, some orders have already been set at 5% to 10% quarter-over-quarter increases. The report added that some OEMs are speeding up orders, suggesting both DRAM and NAND prices could post quarter-over-quarter gains of more than 20%. Based on that view, BofA expects global DRAM average selling prices to rise 21% in the third quarter, above TrendForce estimates of 13% to 18% for conventional DRAM and 8% to 13% when HBM is included.

ChangXin Memory Technologies has moved a step closer to listing in Shanghai after opening online and offline subscriptions for its STAR Market IPO on July 16, roughly seven months after its application was accepted in December 2025. Its prospectus showed a sharp earnings reversal: net profit came in at -19.225 billion yuan in 2023, -9.051 billion yuan in 2024, and 7.144 billion yuan in 2025. Chairman Zhu Yiming said at a July 15 investor meeting, as cited by Phoenix Weekly Finance, that the company’s recent growth was helped by AI-driven DRAM demand and tight industry supply, while also warning that DRAM remains highly cyclical. He said weaker macro conditions, softer-than-expected AI demand, or concentrated new capacity additions could push the sector back into a downturn. The filing also showed improving pricing and cost metrics in 2025, including a 33.69% year-on-year increase in average selling prices for major DRAM products and gross margin rising to 40.99% from -1.93% in 2023. Still, the company continues to face heavy depreciation and a gap with global leaders Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, even as it plans to raise 29.5 billion yuan for production, DRAM technology, and forward-looking R&D projects.

Counterpoint Research Director Hwang Minsung said 15% global DRAM share is the threshold for ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, to remain sustainable over the long run. He said falling below that level risks repeating the path of Taiwan DRAM makers in 2008, when they were unable to fund next-generation fab investment and saw their share slip to 3%. CXMT’s global DRAM bit shipment share is currently about 9%, with a target of 11% by 2028. According to Counterpoint, IPO proceeds are set to fund next-generation G5 process technology, HBM3 high-bandwidth memory development, and capacity expansion. The company plans to raise monthly wafer capacity from 320,000 wafers to 420,000 by 2027, then double by 2030 and triple by 2035. LPDDR5 and DDR5 are expected to make up about 75% of total output, and PC and server DRAM products have already started shipping to global customers. Counterpoint also flagged four post-IPO variables, including HBM yield and revenue ramp, overseas customer wins, possible new export controls, and whether CXMT can eventually reach 20% bit share and 15% revenue share. Neil Shah said U.S. equipment restrictions are a constraint, but may also push CXMT toward differentiated technology routes.

Changxin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, is preparing for a major public listing that could rank among the biggest semiconductor offerings in China’s A-share market. The company said it plans to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27 and raise RMB 29.5 billion. If completed as described in the source report, the deal would be Asia’s largest IPO in 2026 and the biggest semiconductor IPO in China’s domestic equity market since Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. listed on the STAR Market. The report frames the deal as more than a funding event. CXMT, founded in 2016, focuses on DRAM research, design and manufacturing. Citing industry statistics, the article says the company held about 7.7% of the global DRAM market by 2025, making it the world’s fourth-largest DRAM maker after Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron. The planned proceeds are expected to go toward advanced production lines, research and development, process upgrades and capacity expansion. The broader backdrop is the rise of AI infrastructure. Demand for memory is being pushed higher by AI servers, high-performance computing, cloud services and smart vehicles, while products such as DDR5, LPDDR and HBM are becoming more important. The report argues that CXMT’s listing reflects both capital-market interest in the long-term growth of memory and China’s effort to build out a more complete semiconductor supply chain.

Trade.xyz has listed a CXMT perpetual contract on Hyperliquid ahead of ChangXin Memory Technologies’ STAR Market IPO, creating what appears to be the first on-chain pre-listing market tied to an A-share science and technology board listing. As of publication, the contract was trading at $7.2 in USDC terms, with roughly $1.32 million in 24-hour volume, $2.41 million in open interest and a 0.0014% funding rate. Based on the company’s post-offering share count, that price implies an equity value of about RMB 3.5 trillion, near the upper end of estimates cited by Chinese financial media. The contract arrives before retail subscription opens on July 16 for ChangXin Memory Technologies’ IPO, which is priced at RMB 8.66 per share and is expected to raise RMB 57.9 billion, or as much as RMB 66.6 billion if the greenshoe is fully exercised. The article argues that Hyperliquid’s 24/7, two-way perpetual market fills a gap left by A-share trading rules such as T+1 settlement and the inability to short STAR Market stocks, while also giving offshore investors a way to express a view on China’s domestic memory story despite access barriers in the onshore market. The broader significance, according to the source article, is that DeFi infrastructure is being used to build a parallel price-discovery venue for a mainland China listing that most foreign retail investors cannot directly buy.

Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are reshaping the discussion around the memory industry’s long-standing boom-and-bust pattern. According to an ABMedia analysis citing P Equity Research, AI infrastructure analyst Muhammad Zuhair, and models from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Mizuho and Bernstein, this cycle looks different because demand is arriving alongside structural changes on the supplier side. Micron’s Q3 FY2026 results are presented as an early signal: quarterly revenue reached $41.46 billion, up 74% quarter over quarter and 346% year over year, with a GAAP gross margin of 84.9%. JPMorgan’s model projects DRAM bit demand growth of 32.5% in 2026 and 34.4% in 2027, compared with bit shipment growth of 22.9% and 21.7%, before supply growth overtakes demand in 2028. The report says Micron has signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements, or SCAs, with future revenue obligations above $100 billion based on minimum shipment and pricing commitments. It also points to the memory makers’ investments in AI labs such as Anthropic, and to the rising weight of memory in hyperscaler capital spending as HBM costs become a larger part of AI system bills of materials. Even so, the analysis flags risks around how long SCAs remain effective, whether HBM price hikes can be secured, a possible supply-demand convergence in 2028, and longer-term pressure from Chinese suppliers in commodity DRAM and standard NAND.

ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, has released its IPO prospectus for Shanghai’s STAR Market, setting out a deal that would raise RMB 29.5 billion and rank as the board’s second-largest listing after Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. The chipmaker plans to issue 6.688 billion new shares, with pricing inquiries scheduled for July 13 and subscriptions on July 16 under stock code 688825. The filing shows how sharply the DRAM cycle has turned. CXMT posted attributable net losses of RMB 16.34 billion in 2023 and RMB 7.145 billion in 2024, while cumulative uncovered losses stood at RMB 36.65 billion by the end of 2025. Yet in the first quarter of 2026, revenue reached RMB 50.8 billion, up 719% year over year, and net profit came in at RMB 33 billion. Its 2025 gross margin rose to 40.99% on a consolidated basis, above Samsung’s 39.38% and Micron’s 39.79%, trailing only SK hynix. The prospectus also carries two notable product signals. CXMT said it had stopped producing its own DDR4 products since late 2024 and is now centered on DDR5 and LPDDR5/5X. At the same time, HBM is not mentioned in the filing at all. A RMB 9 billion forward-looking technology project is described only as research for future advanced DRAM from 2026 to 2028, while the company says AI-related revenue remained relatively low during the reporting period. The document also points to structural and financial risks, including heavy depreciation, a lower sell-through rate, and a warning that the strong earnings growth seen in the first half of 2026 may not be sustainable.

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