Bernstein
2026-08-13 02:02:49Bernstein lifts WFE outlook through 2028, with DRAM and logic spending driving a 75% two-year rise
Bernstein has raised its global wafer fab equipment, or WFE, spending forecasts for 2026 through 2028 and says the current upcycle in chip equipment spending still has room to run. The firm now expects WFE to reach $148 billion in 2026, $204 billion in 2027, and $259 billion in 2028, up from prior estimates of $141 billion, $175 billion, and $198 billion. That implies cumulative growth of 75% over two years.
The upgrade spans most applications and regions, but Bernstein said the larger contribution comes from memory outside China and from foundry and logic spending in China. DRAM and NAND are expected to post the fastest growth, outpacing logic and foundry. For 2027, Bernstein forecasts DRAM WFE at $69 billion, NAND at $20 billion, and logic/foundry at $104 billion, each above its earlier projections.
The report also points to stronger-than-expected resilience in China. Bernstein forecasts China WFE demand at $57 billion in 2026, $57.3 billion in 2027, and $101 billion in 2028, with a sharp step-up tied to broad capacity expansion across memory, advanced logic, and mature logic. It also said recent pullbacks in semiconductor equipment stocks have created more attractive entry points, while warning that the views, ratings, and price targets cited are those of Bernstein analysts and do not constitute investment advice.