Strive CEO Matt Cole has published an extensive macro analysis arguing that the U.S. fiscal trajectory is unsustainable, with deficits near 6% of GDP despite near-full employment. He identifies the 5.25%–5.85% range on the 10-year Treasury yield as a critical policy threshold where the Treasury or Federal Reserve will be forced into large-scale market intervention. Cole contends that the resulting adjustment pressure will be channeled through a weakening dollar rather than resolved through fiscal discipline, creating a historically favorable macro backdrop for Bitcoin. He describes a 'grand slam scenario' where dollar depreciation, policy-driven yield suppression, and AI's erosion of traditional business moats converge to amplify Bitcoin's appeal as the premier scarce monetary asset, concluding that the market may still be underestimating Bitcoin's long-term upside.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is being portrayed as using a set of debt-market interventions to push Treasury yields lower ahead of the midterm elections, with a reported focus on taking the 10-year yield toward 4.3%. The argument, cited in commentary carried by PANews and attributed in part to Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino, is that the goal is less about reversing the structural rise in yields and more about exploiting a fragile positioning setup in the bond market. The reported toolkit includes Treasury buybacks, increased issuance of short-dated debt, and even the removal of ultra-long maturities such as the 20-year bond. So far, the impact has been limited. Yields continued to rise with oil prices earlier in the week, and only edged lower after the Treasury told CNBC it could use as much as $954 billion from the Treasury General Account, or TGA, for support. The positioning backdrop is central to the thesis. Goldman Sachs’ futures desk said CTA and trend-following funds are holding sizable bond short positions, measured at about $155 million in DV01. Goldman estimates that if bond prices rise by two standard deviations over one month, short covering and renewed buying could reach $150 million in DV01, a level the report says would mark a record. The political window is also explicit: roughly two months remain before the midterms.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday as lower long-dated Treasury yields gave technology shares room to recover, while traders also reacted to easing signals around the Strait of Hormuz and a fresh rally in both Bitcoin and gold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30% to 53,577.40, the S&P 500 gained 0.32% to 7,677.28, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.66% to 26,151.30. The CBOE Volatility Index fell 1.77% to 16.13. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 7.13 basis points to 4.625%, with the 2-year at 4.170% and the 30-year at 5.164%. According to the article, the decline in long-end yields extended the impact of Treasury General Account-related long-bond buybacks tied to Bessent, helping ease valuation pressure on growth stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.44%, and Nvidia gained 2.19% to $213.05, ending a seven-day losing streak ahead of its earnings report due after Wednesday’s close. Elsewhere, Iran and Oman said they planned to establish a secure maritime passage in the Strait of Hormuz, sending a de-escalation signal that coincided with a second straight drop in oil prices. WTI crude fell 2.4% to $85.01 a barrel. Bitcoin briefly touched $80,000 for the first time since May and has climbed more than 27% this month, while spot gold rose as much as 1.7% and the world’s largest gold ETF saw $1.3 billion in one-day inflows.

Wall Street is revisiting the weaker-dollar trade as concerns build over the U.S. fiscal outlook. According to BlockBeats, the shift has been driven by a widening U.S. budget deficit, government debt topping $40 trillion, and a Treasury buyback plan that has renewed debate over the dollar’s direction. Gold and emerging-market currencies have moved higher in recent weeks, while the U.S. Dollar Index fell to a three-month low last week. Gold has already posted a fifth straight weekly gain, and its August advance is on track to be the largest monthly increase since 1999. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury last week raised the cap on long-dated bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and may use about $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to support the program. Even so, the 30-year Treasury yield still briefly climbed to 5.34%, suggesting markets see the buybacks as insufficient to offset pressure from deficits, inflation, and debt supply. Fed expectations are also shifting. Federal funds futures show the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting has risen to about 56%, up more than 7 percentage points from a week earlier. Some institutions say the weaker-dollar trade may still struggle to become a firm trend unless the Fed aligns with fiscal policy.

A market narrative taking shape around U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent says his recent moves in the bond market may be less about reversing the broader rise in yields and more about exploiting an extreme positioning setup. According to Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino, Wall Street executives familiar with Bessent’s thinking said he wants to intimidate bond shorts through a mix of Treasury buybacks, heavier short-dated issuance, and even the possible removal of 20-year and other ultra-long maturities. The theory is that a policy-driven rise in bond prices could force commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, to cover large short positions and amplify the move. Goldman Sachs’ futures desk said CTA and trend-following funds now hold sizable bearish bond exposure, measured at about $155 million DV01, near multi-year extremes. In Goldman’s scenario analysis, a two-standard-deviation price rise over one month could trigger roughly $150 million DV01 of covering and fresh buying, with the larger squeeze setup approaching record territory. So far, intervention has produced only limited results, with yields easing only modestly after the Treasury signaled support from as much as $954 billion in the Treasury General Account.

MarsBit published a long-form interview from 168X War Room that tied Federal Reserve policy, U.S. Treasury funding pressure, and the rapid buildout of AI capital spending into one macro frame. The guest, Tiezhu, argued that the Fed’s legal independence remains intact but its room to maneuver has narrowed as debt-market realities become harder to ignore. In his view, the central bank’s practical endgame is not simply inflation or employment, but preserving the U.S. Treasury market when sovereign debt has become too large to sit in the background. He said rate hikes can suppress inflation spikes but cannot lower the underlying level of inflation if fiscal spending keeps flowing, and he rejected the idea of further hikes later this year. His base case is that September stays on hold, while the odds of a year-end rate cut stand at 60%. He also argued that stronger AI investment makes cuts more, not less, likely because high rates do little to restrain the most profitable AI businesses while putting heavier pressure on real estate, small businesses, and other rate-sensitive sectors. The interview also focused on AI moving into a credit-expansion phase through SPVs, project finance, GPU financing, private credit, and long-dated corporate borrowing. On China, the discussion touched on Alibaba’s planned HK$80 billion AI capital raise, open-source model competition, and broader policy support for technology investment.

Fox Business reporter Charlie Gasparino said on Aug. 24 that several Wall Street executives familiar with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s thinking believe the recent push to expand Treasury buybacks is not mainly about supporting the bond market. In their account, the real objective is to intimidate investors betting against long-dated U.S. government debt and prevent the 10-year Treasury yield from being driven to 5%. The report says the toolkit could include larger buybacks, heavier issuance of short-dated bills, and even the removal of the 20-year Treasury. The backdrop is an unusually crowded short position in bonds. Bloomberg reported on Aug. 11 that trend-following funds and leveraged investors had built net short Treasury futures positions of 1.29 million contracts by late July, the highest on record. UBS data cited in the story says CTA exposure has become so large that a 1 basis point move in the 10-year yield now swings profit and loss by about $300 million, the biggest reading in the bank’s records since 1990. The story also points to the Treasury General Account, which reportedly holds about $954 billion, as a possible funding source for buybacks. That adds a political and policy layer because critics warn the Treasury’s actions could blur the Federal Reserve’s signal on long-end rates ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

U.S. Treasuries, gold and Bitcoin moved higher on Aug. 25 while oil prices fell and technology shares stayed under pressure, reflecting a market driven by policy signals rather than a simple flight-to-safety trade. Investors focused on reports that the U.S. Treasury could tap cash in the Treasury General Account, or TGA, to fund a larger buyback of long-dated government bonds, a step some traders see as a stronger tool to support the long end of the market. At the same time, Washington’s approach toward Iran appeared to shift, at least for now, from military escalation to economic pressure, helping reduce the oil market’s geopolitical risk premium. Even so, the bond story did not translate into a broad equity rebound. Wall Street remained divided on whether expanded buybacks can do much more than improve liquidity and smooth supply in older issues, with banks including Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo arguing that deficits, inflation persistence and term premium pressures still dominate the long end. Meanwhile, AI and semiconductor shares continued to weaken. Nvidia marked a seventh straight daily decline, its longest losing streak since September 2022, as investors cut exposure ahead of earnings, the Jackson Hole central bank symposium and fresh U.S. policy headlines.