US Dollar

US Treasuries

2026-10-03 14:58:30

30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2002, Leaving Bitcoin Caught Between Opposing Forces

BlockBeats reported on Oct. 3 that the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has climbed to its highest level since 2002, driven by record fiscal deficits and persistent inflation. The report said U.S. CPI has now remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 60 straight months, the longest such stretch since the 1980s. It also pointed to a sharp concentration of wealth in the United States: the richest 1% of households hold about $60.3 trillion in net assets, or 14.3 times the level held by the bottom 50% of households. Since 2020, the dollar’s purchasing power has fallen 23%. For Bitcoin, the setup sends two signals at once. On one side, a higher long-end Treasury yield raises the discount rate and can weigh directly on valuations for non-yielding assets such as BTC. On the other, sticky inflation and a weaker dollar purchasing profile can strengthen the case for Bitcoin as a hard asset and an inflation hedge. The near-term question, according to the analysis cited by BlockBeats, is which force matters more: support from inflation and dollar weakness, or pressure on risk assets from rising long-dated Treasury yields.

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stablecoins

2026-10-02 14:12:48

European issuers argue regulated dollar stablecoins are still needed under MiCA

European stablecoin issuers are arguing that the European Union’s push to strengthen the euro does not remove the need for US dollar liquidity in business payments and settlement. German issuer AllUnity has launched USDAU, a dollar-pegged stablecoin, expanding its MiCA-regulated offering beyond European currencies. Stable Mint and Societe Generale-FORGE are making a similar case, saying demand comes from practical use cases such as cross-border payments, 24/7 dollar settlement, collateral management and treasury operations, not speculation. Their comments come as the EU reviews its Markets in Crypto-Assets framework and the European Central Bank continues to warn that stablecoins could reinforce the dollar’s global dominance. Even so, Europe-issued dollar stablecoins remain very small next to market leaders. CoinGecko data cited in the report puts Stable Mint’s USDSM and SG-FORGE’s USDCV at roughly $13 million each, compared with $184 billion for Tether’s USDT and $74 billion for Circle’s USDC.

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US Treasury y

2026-09-30 07:24:43

US 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.29% as October rate-hike expectations cool

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly climbed to 5.29%, marking a 19-year high, according to a ChainCatcher newsflash. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October eased after New York Fed President John Williams said he was "not in a hurry." Saxo Bank said yields have already pulled back, but added that the next move for the US dollar and Treasuries will depend on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, data due later today. The update ties a sharp move in bond yields to shifting rate expectations and puts immediate focus on the upcoming inflation reading as the key macro event to watch.

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Standard Char

2026-09-22 05:19:51

Standard Chartered says weaker real-rate drag could lift gold to $4,650 in Q4 2026

Standard Chartered said gold did not keep falling after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points last week, a sign that the metal’s traditional inverse relationship with real interest rates is losing strength. The bank now expects gold to average $4,650 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, above the current third-quarter average of about $4,350. Suki Cooper, Standard Chartered’s global head of commodities research, said structural drivers including de-dollarization, currency debasement and continued official-sector buying are supporting prices. The bank also pointed to weaker negative correlations between gold and both Treasury yields and real yields. Correlation with 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is now close to -20% and -10%, while the inverse relationship with 2-year and 5-year real yields has also eased. At the same time, inflows into gold ETFs have continued to recover, with August inflows reaching 121 tonnes, the highest since September 2025. Standard Chartered said speculative positioning in gold is not notably crowded, and profit-taking ahead of the Fed’s September meeting has already reduced some long exposure, limiting the scope for additional selling after the rate hike. Still, the bank said the U.S. dollar remains the main near-term risk for gold.

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US Treasury

2026-09-20 14:00:08

Bessent says Treasury buybacks are for liquidity and debt maturity management, not market control

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the data do not support claims that capital is leaving the United States, arguing that foreign demand for U.S. assets remains firm and that the dollar still sits on one side of 89.2% of global foreign-exchange transactions. He also pointed to the fact that major stablecoins are denominated in dollars as part of that broader picture. Bessent said Treasury buybacks are intended to improve market liquidity and manage the maturity structure of federal debt, not to control the U.S. government bond market, which he described as being worth more than $30 trillion. He added that if investors were truly unwilling to buy Treasurys, that would show up in auction bidding data, but current figures still indicate strong foreign appetite for U.S. assets. He also addressed recent asset-allocation moves, saying Norway had merely shifted part of its Treasury holdings into agency debt while remaining invested in U.S. assets, and that the Netherlands’ decision to move gold back from North American locations including New York and Ottawa reflected a custody preference. Bessent further cited the Atlanta Fed’s estimate of 5.1% annualized real GDP growth for the third quarter, along with continued job growth, expanding business investment and capital spending, and equipment investment in the second quarter of 2026 running nearly 20% above the level at the end of Biden’s term. He also criticized The New York Times for selectively omitting data that did not fit its narrative.

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Federal Reser

2026-09-18 12:46:07

Citi says hawkish Fed has strengthened the dollar’s near-term case, with DXY seen at 101.15

The Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting delivered a more hawkish message than many in the market had expected, and Citi Research says that shift has given the U.S. dollar its strongest near-term support. The bank said the outcome has turned the October meeting into a live one, with markets now pricing in roughly 13 basis points of additional tightening. On Citi’s reading, the Dollar Index has confirmed a double-bottom pattern and now points to 101.15. Citi also argues that the current macro mix of higher yields and pressure on equities has historically been one of the most supportive settings for the dollar. In that framework, the bank sees downside pressure on the euro, Swiss franc, Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar, and says EUR/USD could revisit the 1.13 area. At the same time, the report does not present the dollar view as one-way. Citi highlighted geopolitical tensions, the approach of the U.S. midterm elections, widening Brent spot backwardation, and volatility around Fed decision days as factors that could quickly alter market direction. The bank also flagged PCE methodology changes and the risk that much of the FOMC outcome has already been priced in.

440

Federal Reser

2026-09-18 04:02:58

Markets Fear a Shift in the Fed’s Reaction Function More Than a 25-Basis-Point Hike

A TechFlowPost commentary argues that the market’s real concern is not a single 25-basis-point rate increase, but a broader shift in how the Federal Reserve responds to inflation. The piece says investors may need to reprice an entire framework that had assumed the easing cycle was already underway, inflation would cool in an orderly way, and funding costs would keep falling. The article breaks the issue into several transmission channels. It says equities tend to take the first hit through valuation as higher risk-free rates reduce the present value of future earnings, while the second hit can arrive later through refinancing costs, weaker demand, tighter bank lending standards, and wider risk premiums. On Treasuries, it argues that a hike does not automatically mean all yields rise together, because the short end and long end reflect different forces. It also says rate hikes cannot fix an oil supply shock, but they can try to stop energy and food price increases from feeding into wages, services inflation, and inflation expectations. For global markets, the article notes that a relatively higher U.S. rate path can strengthen the appeal of dollar assets, though the size of any dollar move depends on relative policy paths elsewhere. For China, it says investors should watch the transmission chain through the China-U.S. rate gap, USD/CNY, offshore dollar funding, foreign risk appetite, and domestic policy room rather than simply guessing the next day’s A-share move.

430

Bitcoin

2026-09-15 21:21:01

Strive CEO Matt Cole says Bitcoin is set up for 30% growth into 2030

Bitcoin Magazine has published an interview featuring Strive CEO Matt Cole, who argued that Bitcoin is positioned for 30% growth into 2030. In the conversation with Grace Remington and Sean Hagan, Cole laid out a three-part macro view centered on the U.S. dollar, long-end Treasury rates, and Bitcoin regaining what he described as its role as the fastest horse against gold. He said that if the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury eventually move to suppress long-end rates, the dollar would become the release valve, while scarce assets would rally. Cole also shared his base-case outlook of roughly 50% annual Bitcoin returns through 2030. The program included a disclaimer stating that the views expressed were those of the participants and did not necessarily reflect the official position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or affiliated entities. It also said the content was for informational and educational purposes only and should not be taken as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice.

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