S&P 500 low-volatility index flips its usual pattern, raising a warning for U.S. stocks
The S&P 500 Low Volatility Index has posted a pattern that author Jim Paulsen describes as unprecedented since 1990: it has, on average, risen on days when the S&P 500 falls and declined on days when the benchmark rises over the past six months. In the article translated by TechFlow and published by Odaily, Paulsen argues that the move reflects a market pulled in two directions at once. Investors still do not want to miss the upside tied to the AI trade, but they are also increasingly worried about being caught too late in crowded, expensive positions. Paulsen frames the setup as a collision between FOMO and what he calls NBO, or fear of not getting out in time. He says historical data suggest this kind of low-volatility behavior has often been a weak signal for the broader S&P 500 and for newer-economy groups such as technology and communication services. The piece also points to a shift in market internals: even with strong earnings, technology stocks and the Mag 7 have only modestly outperformed the broader market since mid-2024, while small caps, value shares, and international equities have moved closer to new-economy performance over the past year.








